EB Securities: May express delivery volume growth stabilizes, with steady prices rising amid anti-"996" trend.

EB SECURITIES released a research report stating that in May 2026, the national express delivery volume reached 18.3 billion pieces, an increase of 5.66% year-on-year; the volume from January to May 2026 reached 82.87 billion pieces, an increase of 5.2% year-on-year. The driving factors for the industry price turning from negative to positive are two-fold: first, the strong sustainability of the boost effect of the industry "anti-inner cycling"; second, the intense price competition at the same period last year has pushed prices to a low point, laying the foundation for the turning from negative to positive in May of this year. The CR8 of the express delivery industry has continued to show positive growth year-on-year, reflecting the continuous increase in market share of top companies. The main points of EB SECURITIES are as follows: In May, the year-on-year growth rate of the industry's express delivery volume steadily increased, and the growth rate of e-commerce express delivery was considerable. 1) Industry-wide: In May 2026, the national express delivery volume reached 18.3 billion pieces, an increase of 5.66% year-on-year; from January to May 2026, the volume reached 82.87 billion pieces, an increase of 5.2% year-on-year. The report believes that online e-commerce consumption remains active, stabilizing the volume growth base, coupled with the "national subsidy" policy driving the smooth operation of the consumption market, and the continued expansion of downstream markets such as rural areas, resulting in a steady increase in the volume of express delivery. 2) E-commerce express delivery: The year-on-year growth rates of various companies' volumes in May increased significantly compared to April, with YTO increasing from +1.23% in April to +10.60%, Yunda increasing from -4.14% to -0.52%, and STO increasing from +13.72% to +18.77%. 3) Direct-operated express delivery: SF's business volume year-on-year growth rate decreased from -3.0% to -4.20%. The industry price steadily increased, and the intensity and sustainability of the express delivery "anti-inner cycling" exceeded expectations. 1) Industry-wide: In May 2026, the year-on-year increase in revenue of the express delivery industry was +9.47%, and the year-on-year increase in unit revenue was +3.61%. The report believes that the driving factors for the turning of prices from negative to positive are two-fold: first, the strong sustainability of the boost effect of the industry "anti-inner cycling"; second, the intense price competition at the same period last year has pushed prices to a low point, laying the foundation for the turning from negative to positive in May this year. 2) E-commerce express delivery: The year-on-year unit revenue of YTO/Yunda/STO in May 2026 was -3.77%/+7.29%/+9.74%, and from January to May, their unit revenue was -0.75%/+9.37%/+13.43% year-on-year. 3) Direct-operated express delivery: SF's unit revenue in May increased by +4.80% year-on-year, and from January to May, it increased by +2.83% year-on-year. SF's volume structure continues to improve, and the unit price has turned from negative to positive year-on-year, with the gradual emergence of the "gain plan" effect. The industry concentration slightly slowed down, and the market share of top companies in Q1 2026 remained relatively stable. From the beginning of 2022 to the end of 2024, due to relatively mild price competition under policy regulation, the concentration towards the top was relatively slow. 1) Industry-wide: During the period from January to May 2026, the CR8 of the express delivery industry was 87.1, an increase of 0.1 year-on-year. Since January 2025, the CR8 of the express delivery industry has continued to show positive growth year-on-year, reflecting the continuous increase in market share of top companies. 2) E-commerce express delivery: The market share rates (calculated by volume) of YTO/Yunda/STO/RabbitExpress in Q1 2026 were 16.01%/11.96%/13.92%/11.32%, with changes compared to Q4 2025 of +0.12pct/-0.02pct/+0.41pct/+0.39pct, and the market share rates of top express delivery companies in Q1 2026 remained relatively stable. In November-December 2025, STO merged with Daniao Logistics, which as a top provider of domestic high-quality express and reverse logistics services, directly expanded STO's business territory. 3) Direct-operated express delivery: SF's market share rate in Q1 2026 reached 7.77%, with a quarter-on-quarter change of -0.65pct compared to Q4 2025. Risk Analysis: Economic fluctuations, industry policy changes, irrational competition, and fluctuating oil prices, etc.