Cui Dongshu: The growth rate of car manufacturers' sales in June remained relatively stable, but the trend of new energy vehicles is not strong.

On July 11, Cui Dongshu stated that due to the strong consumption policies last year, there is a significant policy contraction in 2026, causing a sharp decrease in entry-level consumer support policies and continuous negative growth in retail sales of passenger cars in the first half of this year, especially for fuel passenger cars, which have seen a collapse in sales. However, due to export growth, manufacturer sales growth in June remained relatively stable. The trend for new energy vehicles in June was not strong, but the automotive export market continued to improve, with a slight reduction in manufacturer inventory and no industry oversupply phenomenon. 1. Overall stability of the automotive market in 2026 In June 2026, total automotive sales reached 2.79 million units, a 3% year-on-year decrease. From January to June 2026, total automotive sales reached 14.98 million units, a cumulative decrease of 4%. The truck and bus markets were relatively strong in 2026, while the passenger car market performance was slightly weaker. Due to strong exports and weak domestic demand, overall manufacturer sales trends remained relatively stable. The performance of automotive groups in 2026 showed significant differentiation, with companies like SAIC quickly recovering and regaining the top position. BYD Company Limited continued to maintain a strong performance overall. 2. Proportion of exports in total sales Chinese automotive exports have seen explosive growth in recent years, reaching a proportion of 37% in June 2026, significantly higher than the 21% in 2025, playing a crucial role in supporting the growth of the Chinese automotive industry. 3. Significant differentiation in the performance of major automotive groups Compared to the chart for 2021, some automotive companies showed strong performance in 2022, leading to severe differentiation in industry growth rates. The early outbreak of the pandemic in 2022 put significant pressure on traditional automotive companies, especially with the impact of new energy vehicles and the pandemic. State-owned major groups showed a varied performance, with Guangzhou Automobile Group and Chery performing well, particularly in commercial and passenger vehicle segments. The northern companies like FAW, Great Wall, and BAIC faced challenges in performance. The trend towards new energy vehicles drove the automotive market in early 2023. The top three central enterprises showed significant differentiation, with some state-owned enterprises falling behind. BYD Company Limited and other new energy companies performed well, while Chery and Tesla showed relatively strong performance. Secondary car manufacturers saw significant differentiation due to the shift from traditional to new energy sources and ongoing losses in new energy vehicles, leading to a severe downturn in small-to-medium-sized independent brands. The lineup of automotive groups underwent comprehensive changes in 2024, with BYD Company Limited lowering prices and increasing sales volumes with new products. Due to strong demand for passenger cars and contributions from overseas markets, Cherry, Geely, and Dongfeng performed well, while SAIC continued to see sharp declines. BYD Company Limited and Tesla showed different growth rates in new energy vehicles. There was a massive change in the landscape of automotive manufacturers, with industry growth showing severe differentiation. From 2025 onwards, private enterprises replaced state-owned enterprises as industry leaders, with Geely, BYD Company Limited, Chery, and Great Wall maintaining high growth rates. Leading in sales in 2026 became the focus of state-owned enterprises' efforts, as although the market was challenging, companies like SAIC, Geely, Chery, and BAIC showed strong performance from January to June, with improved growth rates. Overall, companies like Great Wall and Tesla showed excellent performance. The landscape of automotive manufacturers in 2026 was relatively stable, with a significant rise in independent positions. Overall, manufacturer sales were good in June, but a sluggish retail market dragged down the performance of passenger car manufacturers. Some manufacturers like BYD Company Limited showed a strong performance compared to May, while SAIC Passenger Cars showed strong year-on-year growth. However, some manufacturers like BYD Company Limited saw good sales in June, while others like Changan had significant adjustments in comparison. 4. Trends in production and sales of narrow passenger car enterprises In June 2026, the total sales of narrow passenger cars reached 2.36 million units, a 6% year-on-year decrease; from January to June 2026, the total sales of narrow passenger cars reached 12.55 million units, a 6% year-on-year decrease. In recent years, new energy vehicle technology innovation and increasing competitiveness of new products have led to a lackluster launch of new fuel vehicles. At the beginning of 2026, new energy vehicles were in an adjustment period, with dealers lacking confidence and high oil prices dampening growth. In June 2026, domestic passenger car manufacturers led the way. Overall, mainstream manufacturers were relatively weak in June, while independent manufacturers remained strong. Due to high oil prices, joint venture manufacturers had a weak performance in June. BYD Company Limited led the pack, with CHERY AUTO in second place and GEELY AUTO maintaining its top 3 position, with volumes approaching each other. Joint ventures like FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC Volkswagen showed lower performance. There was rapid differentiation in the camp of mainstream passenger car manufacturers, with companies focused on exports and new energy vehicles showing stronger performance. The performance of joint ventures varied significantly, with Toyota showing a strong performance. 5. Trends in production and sales of new energy passenger car enterprises In June 2026, the total sales of new energy passenger car manufacturers reached 1.48 million units, a 19% year-on-year increase; from January to June 2026, the total sales of new energy passenger car manufacturers reached 6.79 million units, a 5% year-on-year increase. The pressure from subsidies for scrap-and-replacement, soaring oil prices, weak consumer demand, and low demand for new energy vehicles in 2026 posed challenges for the domestic new energy market. BYD Company Limited remained in the leading position in 2026, but faced significant growth pressure in plug-in hybrids. Companies like CHERY and LINGYAO showed strong growth in new energy vehicles. 6. Trends in production and sales of traditional fuel passenger car enterprises In 2025, sales of traditional fuel narrow passenger cars reached 14.22 million units, a 5% year-on-year decrease, with 5.76 million units sold from January to June 2026, a 16% year-on-year decrease. With high oil prices, the market trend in 2026 remained weak. Supported by exports, the overall performance of fuel cars in 2026 showed differentiation, with independent manufacturers performing strongly and major joint venture manufacturers quickly weakening in the short term. 7. Classification of trends in production and sales of bus enterprises In 2025, the total sales of buses reached 920,000 units, with a 15% cumulative growth; from January to June 2026, the total sales of buses reached 420,000 units, a 6% year-on-year decrease, with average performance of exports and new energy logistics vehicles. After a strong push at the end of 2025, the trend for buses in 2026 gradually strengthened, with SAIC-GM Wuling showing excellent performance. Leading bus manufacturers like SAIC Maxus saw strong overall sales in recent months, with significant demand fluctuations in light and medium-sized logistics and microbuses and a significant contribution from exports. Commercial vehicles from Jiangling Motors Corporation and SAIC Maxus performed well in 2026, with significant increases in the sales of logistics vehicles from companies like Zhengzhou Yutong, BAIC Foton, and SAIC Maxus in June. 8. Classification of trends in production and sales of truck enterprises In 2025, truck sales reached 3.72 million units, with an 11% cumulative growth, and from January to June 2026, truck sales reached 2.02 million units, a 9% year-on-year increase, leading to a divergence between consumption and production trends, with a sharp decline in consumption and strong production growth. In 2026, major truck manufacturers showed a clear differentiation, with top truck manufacturers performing well, such as BAIC Foton, China FAW, Sinotruk Jinan Truck, and Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp.,Ltd., all seeing significant year-on-year growth compared to June of the previous year. The subsidy effects on commercial vehicles were prominent in 2026, with a sharp increase in heavy-duty trucks, strong performance from pure electric heavy-duty trucks, and strong growth from companies like FAW, Shaanxi Auto, and FAW Jiefang, leading to a relatively stable industry landscape.