Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. removed Duke Energy Corporation (DUK.US) from its "focus list" but maintained a "buy" rating, with AI data centers' power demand as a core growth engine.

On July 1, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. removed Duke Energy Corporation (DUK.US) from its "US Conviction List" but maintained a "buy" rating on the stock. Meanwhile, on June 24, Morgan Stanley raised the target price of Duke Energy Corporation from $132 to $136, reaffirming a "hold" rating. By the close of trading on July 7, Duke Energy Corporation was trading at $128.22, up 1.79%, with an intraday high of $130.37. The 52-week trading range for the stock is $113.90 to $134.49. Year-to-date, Duke Energy Corporation has risen approximately 9.33%. Institutional rating differences: Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. removes from watch list but maintains the buy rating Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. added Duke Energy Corporation to its US Conviction List in July 2025, with a "buy" rating and a target price of $132. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. highlighted Duke Energy Corporation's progress in key markets and efforts to expand natural gas power generation capacity through its partnership with GE Vernova. The removal of Duke Energy Corporation from the Conviction List is part of Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s routine monthly adjustments. Notably, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. analyst Carly Davenport reiterated a "buy" rating on Duke Energy Corporation and a target price of $145 on May 28. As of now, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. has maintained a target price of $145 for Duke Energy Corporation, which represents approximately 13% upside from the current stock price. On June 24, Morgan Stanley raised Duke Energy Corporation's target price from $132 to $136 as part of its monthly target adjustments for the North American regulated and diversified utilities/independent power producers sector. Morgan Stanley pointed out that the utilities sector had declined by 5.5% in May, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's gain of about 5.1% during the same period. Overall, Wall Street consensus leans towards positive. According to a survey of 23 analysts by S&P Global, Duke Energy Corporation has a consensus rating of "buy" with an average target price of $138.56, representing approximately 8% upside from the current stock price. Of the 17 research firms providing ratings, 9 have a "buy" rating and 8 have a "hold" rating. BTIG reiterated a "buy" rating on Duke Energy Corporation on July 6, with a target price of $139; Mizuho maintained an "outperform" rating with a target price of $135; UBS Group AG raised its target price from $134 to $143. AI Data Centers: The "Core Engine" of Power Demand Duke Energy Corporation is at the center of the explosive growth in power demand from AI data centers in the United States. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) forecast, demand for American Electric Power Company, Inc. will reach a historic high in 2026. Duke Energy Corporation expects its overall load growth rate to reach 1.5% to 2% by 2026 and further accelerate to 3% to 4% annually from 2027 to 2030, driven by data centers and advanced manufacturing. The signed data contracts are remarkable. Since 2024, Duke Energy Corporation has signed Data Center Energy Services Agreements (ESAs) representing 7.6 gigawatts (GW) of new power demand, with nearly two-thirds of projects already under construction. In just the first quarter of 2026, the company added 2.7 GW of data center energy services agreements. Additionally, the company has disclosed that it is in advanced discussions for another 15.4 GW of data center projects. One gigawatt of power can supply approximately 750,000 American households. The 7.6 GW of signed data center demand is enough to supply approximately 5.7 million households, and the 15.4 GW of projects under discussions suggests potential future demand exceeding 11.5 million households. Even considering only the signed projects, this volume already surpasses the total electricity requirements of many small and medium cities. Wedbush noted in a report in February that the energy demand for AI is not a temporary surge but a long-term structural shift in the global economy's power consumption patterns. The EIA emphasized in a report in May that electricity consumption in 2026 will exceed last year's levels, with this growth trend continuing into the following year. In 2027, commercial electricity consumption will surpass residential electricity consumption for the first time, attributed to AI by the EIA. $103 billion capital expenditure plan: Largest-scale investment in the sector In response to the surge in power demand driven by AI data centers, Duke Energy Corporation announced in February 2026 a significant increase of 18% in its five-year (2026-2030) capital expenditure plan to $103 billion, the largest fully regulated capital expenditure plan in the U.S. utilities sector. The capital expenditure plan increased by approximately $16 billion compared to previous plans, with a focus on areas such as natural gas generation, energy storage, CECEP Solar Energy, and upgrades to existing generation units. The company expects the rate base to grow from approximately $114 billion in 2025 to about $180 billion by 2030, with an average annual growth rate of 9.6%. Duke Energy Corporation expects total capital expenditures over the next decade to reach $200 billion to $220 billion. The company indicated that sources of funding for capital expenditures would include asset sales, realization of tax offsets, and a balanced issuance of equity/debt. The company's full-year capital expenditure outlook for 2026 is approximately $17.75 billion, with $4.19 billion spent by March 31. First-quarter results exceed expectations, full-year guidance unchanged Duke Energy Corporation's first-quarter financial results for 2026, released on May 5, laid a solid foundation for the full-year outlook. In terms of core financials, first-quarter revenue reached $9.178 billion, an 11.26% increase year-over-year. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.93, higher than the $1.76 from the same period last year, a 9.7% increase. GAAP earnings per share were $1.97. This performance exceeded Wall Street's expectations the Zacks Consensus estimate was $1.79 per share, an actual beat of 7.6%. In terms of business segments, revenue for the Electric Utilities and Infrastructure segment increased by $128 million to $1.4 billion; the Gas Utilities and Infrastructure segment increased by $12 million to $361 million. The natural gas business serves approximately 1.6 million customers, with quarterly profits increasing from $349 million in the same period last year to $532 million. Regarding full-year guidance, the company reiterated an adjusted earnings per share range of $6.55 to $6.80 for 2026, with analysts currently expecting $6.70 per share. The company also reaffirmed its long-term compound annual growth rate target of 5% to 7% in earnings per share through 2030. Management expressed confidence in achieving the upper end of that range starting in 2028. The "Electricity Water Seller" of the AI Era Duke Energy Corporation is transitioning from a traditional regulated utility company to an essential provider of "electricity infrastructure" in the AI era. Wedbush described this shift as "The Great Power Pivot" the utility sector is transitioning from defensive investments to growth investments. Bank of America Corp previously noted in an industry report that the power demand from AI data centers is pushing the utility sector to the forefront of market attention. With the AI infrastructure budgets of super-sized cloud service providers reaching approximately $750 billion by 2026, the bottleneck effect of power supply is becoming increasingly prominent. For investors, Duke Energy Corporation offers a unique investment logic: it is not an AI chip company or a cloud service provider, but rather an "electricity water seller" for AI computing infrastructure regardless of which tech giant emerges victorious in the AI race, their data centers will need power. As the narrative of AI power demand expands from the 7.6 GW of signed projects to the 15.4 GW of projects under discussion and beyond, Duke Energy Corporation's growth story is just beginning to unfold.