From the $60,000 defense line being breached to a $4.1 billion mass sell-off, the Bitcoin ETF moves towards the worst single-month withdrawal in history.

The exchange-traded funds (ETFs) of Bitcoin exchanges listed in the United States (i.e., all Bitcoin ETFs traded on US stock exchanges) are accelerating towards the most serious monthly fund outflow since their launch two years ago. At the same time, legendary investor Jeremy Grantham, known for successfully predicting the bursting of the internet bubble in 2000 and the housing market collapse in 2008, has once again expressed long-term doubts about cryptocurrency, bluntly stating that Bitcoin (BTC) "will inevitably be reduced to zero" and calling it "unnecessary," "except for the convenience of criminals to transfer funds to evade tracking, it has no practical use. The latest compiled data from institutions shows that investors have withdrawn over $4.1 billion from these 13 Bitcoin ETF funds in the US stock market since June, marking the largest net outflow since these products were publicly listed in January 2024. The Bitcoin ETF fund issued by BlackRock, the world's largest asset management giant with the trading code: IBIT, accounts for $3 billion of this total withdrawal amount. As shown in the above chart, Bitcoin ETFs in the US stock market are set to reach a record monthly outflow of funds. With the outflow of funds, the spot price of Bitcoin itself is also likely to record its worst monthly benchmark performance since June 2022. At that time, a series of bankruptcies in the cryptocurrency field culminated in the downfall of Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX cryptocurrency empire. The price of Bitcoin, the world's largest market capitalization cryptocurrency, has fallen by over 18% this month, hovering around the key level of $60,000 since falling below this crucial technical level last week. Analysts from the market intelligence company Glassnode wrote in a recent report, "The scale and duration of these outflows indicate that Wall Street asset management institutions and other traditional investors are still maintaining a defensive stance." These analysts added that in the past, Bitcoin retracements have attracted strong ETF buying, but this time, institutional investors seem to be reducing their exposure to Bitcoin. As shown in the chart above, the price of Bitcoin is set to record its worst monthly performance since June 2022. In addition to spot Bitcoin ETF funds, Strategy, the "Bitcoin shadow company" founded by Michael Saylor, which has long been accumulating Bitcoin, has also been in a severely unfavorable situation. One of the triggers for the recent large-scale selling of Bitcoin was Strategy selling $2.5 million worth of Bitcoin from its holdings valued at about $50 billion. Although this sale was small in scale, it carries significant symbolic importance for the market. Tony Sycamore, a senior analyst at IG Australia, said, "To make matters worse, MicroStrategy's important preferred stock instrument STRC plummeted by 24.67% last week to $74.57. "This sale was driven by increasing market pessimism that the company may need to sell most of its Bitcoin holdings to meet upcoming convertible note maturity and dividend obligations." As of Monday morning at 8:30 am London time, the spot price of Bitcoin was trading around $60,000, a significant drop of over 50% from its historic high in October last year. Is the "zero theory" reigniting the winter trading of cryptocurrencies? Grantham's latest and most radical forecast that "Bitcoin will inevitably be reduced to zero" is not a short-term price prediction but a typical long-term fundamental denial: he believes that Bitcoin is neither a stable store of value nor a practical means of daily exchange, with its core usage staying more on speculation and gray fund transfers. He reiterated over the weekend in an interview with the media that cryptocurrency is a "useless speculative mechanism" and may ultimately not collapse dramatically but quietly disappear. Grantham's latest assessment has drawn market attention because he accurately warned of the internet bubble and the US housing bubble. However, it is important to note that he admits it "may take a long time", implying that his judgment is more of a philosophical denial of the intrinsic value of the asset rather than a tradable signal for strong short selling. The short-term market environment is indeed reinforcing this pessimistic narrative: the US spot Bitcoin ETF is experiencing the most serious fund outflow since its inception, with a total net outflow of over $41 billion from 13 funds since June, including around $30 billion from BlackRock IBIT. Bitcoin's drop this month exceeds 18%, with the current price around $59,800, a correction of over 50% from last year's peak. More importantly, in the past, ETF funds often bought on dips during Bitcoin retracements, but this time, as described by market intelligence company Glassnode, institutional fund behavior is more defensive, indicating that Bitcoin has shifted from being a "scarce narrative-driven asset" to a "high volatility asset priced by ETF fund flows, US dollar interest rates, risk appetite, and leverage liquidation." Bitcoin may not necessarily go to zero as Grantham suggests, but it is losing the protective layer of "unilateral institutional buying" it had before. The sale of about $2.5 million worth of Bitcoin by Strategy, while of a very small amount, carries great symbolic significance, as the market is concerned that the pressure from convertible bond maturities and preferred stock dividends could force it to further dispose of its holdings; this negative feedback loop of "asset price drop - pressure on financing tools - potential selling of coins - price pressure again" is the vulnerability that the current crypto market needs to be vigilant about.