Hormuz Strait "thaw"! Significant recovery in Middle East fertilizer supply alleviates global food inflation pressure.

Transport of fertilizer exports through the Strait of Hormuz is gradually recovering after the signing of a temporary peace agreement between the United States and Iran. Since last week, the amount of fertilizer exports transported through the strait has significantly increased. According to ship tracking data compiled by the media and data from the shipping intelligence company Kpler, at least 16 ships carrying fertilizer products have sailed out of the Strait of Hormuz since the temporary peace agreement was signed between the US and Iran, and the shipping volume is gradually approaching pre-war levels. Among the more than 40 ships that have been stranded since the outbreak of the war, at least 18 have already left, with most heading towards Asia. According to Kpler's data, as of the week ending on June 21, the amount of fertilizer exported through the Hormuz Strait has recovered to about 530,000 tons from near-zero levels during the war. The organization's preliminary tracking data this week shows that fertilizer transportation is still recovering. The transportation of fertilizer exports through the Strait of Hormuz is recovering. The Persian Gulf region has one of the largest fertilizer production bases in the world. About 30% of global maritime fertilizer trade needs to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the only core channel for Middle Eastern fertilizers to reach the global market. Previously, the Middle East war caused a large amount of fertilizer cargo to be stranded in the Persian Gulf, but now, the global fertilizer supply is gradually being relieved. The agricultural industry has been closely monitoring the speed of departing ships. It was generally expected that the recovery of transportation might be gradual as hundreds of ships carrying different goods were all trying to leave the waterway, and the priority of transporting fertilizer goods may be lower than that of crude oil and natural gas. The destinations shown by these ships include Asian countries such as China, India, and Sri Lanka. India is the world's largest importer of urea and diammonium phosphate. In addition, a ship is heading to Brazil. Currently, Brazilian buyers are building fertilizer stocks in preparation for the soybean planting season starting in September. Pranav Goyal, Senior Analyst at consulting firm CRU Group, said: "With the recovery of transportation, some supply pressure should be relieved." Although it may still take several weeks for these goods to reach buyers, the concern about long-term supply disruptions in the market has quickly dissipated, leading to a significant drop in urea prices. Urea is one of the most important fertilizer products in the world. This situation, which is completely opposite to the early stages of the war, has also alleviated one of the biggest risks to global food inflation. In addition, it is not ruled out that other ships carrying fertilizer have successfully left the Persian Gulf. Some ships that were previously stranded in the Persian Gulf have not sent location signals for months, indicating that they may have voluntarily turned off their AIS satellite responders before departing and have not yet reopened their positioning systems. Therefore, the actual number of fertilizer transportation ships leaving the Strait of Hormuz may be higher than the current statistics. Prior to the fertilizer cargo, with signals from the United States and Iran indicating progress in peace negotiations, more and more tankers are opening up satellite signals passing through the critical waterway of the Strait of Hormuz, indicating increasing confidence from ship owners. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has also received assurances of security, allowing hundreds of ships to leave the Persian Gulf.