Iran's crude oil prices have dropped significantly, leading to more ships leaving the Strait of Hormuz.

Following the temporary peace agreement reached between Iran and the United States, releasing millions of barrels of crude oil into the market, Iranian crude oil sellers to China have significantly lowered their prices. According to sources directly involved in the trading, shipments of Iranian light crude oil arriving in July are currently being offered at a discount of $2.50 to $5 per barrel compared to the Brent benchmark oil price. Prior to the temporary agreement, the discount was around $1 per barrel. In June 2026, Iran and the United States reached a memorandum of understanding. The US announced the agreement on June 14th, and it was officially signed in Switzerland on the 19th. After 18 hours of negotiations in the mountains of Birg in Switzerland on the 21st, a joint statement confirming the agreement was issued by mediators Qatar and Pakistan. According to the agreement, the US and Iran agreed to negotiate and reach a final agreement within 60 days. Market analysis suggests that Iran made limited concessions in the agreement, with the US providing significant economic incentives as a leading factor. Foreign media estimate that Iran could earn over $60 billion annually from oil revenue as a result. However, the agreement still faces various uncertainties, as Israel has explicitly stated that it is not bound by the agreement, and hardliners in Iran may obstruct it, leaving uncertainties in the 60-day follow-up nuclear negotiations. Shipping data shows that at least 11 oil tankers have recently left the port of Chabahar in Iran, carrying approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil. At the same time, Iran has resumed loading operations at its main export terminal, Khark Island, which had been suspended for about six weeks due to a US naval blockade, the lifting of which is part of the temporary agreement. This increase in supply has significantly risen compared to a few weeks ago, as the blockade had prevented Iran from exporting oil to the market, leading to a depletion of much-needed financial income. According to energy analysis firm Kpler, there are currently still around 121 million barrels of Iranian crude oil stored on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf and its surrounding areas as well as in other locations, an increase of 5% from the week before the temporary agreement was reached. Approximately a quarter of this oil is idle near China or in the Singapore Strait. Since the conflict sparked by the US attack on Iran at the end of February, passage through the Strait of Hormuz has been blocked, causing Brent crude oil prices to peak at around $118 to $120 per barrel, compared to just under $70 per barrel before the conflict. After the announcement of the agreement between the US and Iran, Brent crude oil prices plummeted. The price continued to drop, with Brent reaching nearly $78 per barrel on June 16th. As of the time of writing, Brent crude oil was priced at $78.83 per barrel, a decrease of 1.52%. Goldman Sachs has lowered its oil price forecast, predicting an average price of $80 per barrel by the end of 2026 and $75 per barrel in 2027, attributing this to a quicker-than-expected recovery in oil supply from the Persian Gulf. However, analysts warn that a drop in oil prices does not necessarily mean a reduction in inflation pressure - the transmission of upstream energy costs to downstream typically has a lag, with natural gas prices usually lagging by about three months.