Probability of US-Iran agreement being signed rises to 85%? Senior Trump administration official: Both sides have basically reached a consensus on the agreement text.

The ongoing confrontation between the United States and Iran may be approaching a crucial turning point. A senior official from the Trump administration said on Friday that the US and Iran may soon sign a memorandum of understanding in the coming days, covering the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, limitations on Iran's nuclear program, establishment of an international nuclear verification mechanism, and the promotion of long-term peace in the region. However, the official also emphasized that there is still uncertainty in reaching a final agreement. The anonymous US official told the media: "This morning I might have said the probability of success was 75%, now it's closer to 80% to 85%, but not yet 100%." According to the official, both sides have reached a basic consensus on the text of the agreement. If signed, this memorandum of understanding will not only facilitate the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but also require Iran to take measures to limit its nuclear program and accept international supervision. The US believes that the agreement has the potential to fundamentally reduce the geopolitical risks that have long existed in the Middle East region. The Strait of Hormuz is considered one of the most important energy transportation routes in the world. Since the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, the strait has become a focal point of global energy markets. Concerns have been raised that if the waterway remains blocked for a long period, it could have a significant impact on global oil supplies. Therefore, if an agreement is reached and the strait is reopened, the geopolitical premium on international oil prices is expected to further decrease. The US official revealed that the agreement also provides Iran with clear economic incentives. If Iran fulfills its commitments under the agreement, the US will consider easing some long-term sanctions and gradually unfreezing frozen overseas assets. The official stated: "Iran will receive substantial economic relief measures." However, he also emphasized: "These benefits will only materialize if Iran truly complies with the agreement." In other words, the economic benefits will not automatically take effect after the agreement is signed, but will be linked to Iran's future compliance. Recent public statements from various parties suggest that negotiations are accelerating. US President Trump announced on Thursday at the White House that the US had "just reached a great resolution," and that only the finalization of the documents remains. Trump said that the agreement could be signed within the next few days. Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif stated on Friday that the US and Iran have formed a "final agreed text of the agreement." As an important mediator in this round of conflict, Pakistan is closely working with both sides to push forward the final signing process. Sharif posted on social media, saying: "Peace has never been closer than it is now." Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif also stated that the two sides are "never closer" to signing the memorandum of understanding. These statements are seen as one of the most positive diplomatic signals so far. Despite the optimistic expectations from all sides, US officials stressed that the negotiations are not yet complete. The official stated: "Unless there are new issues, we believe both sides will complete the signing in the next few days." He pointed out that the political system in Iran is complex, with internal divisions among different factions, which is one of the important reasons why the agreement has not yet been finalized. In addition, the two sides have not yet determined the official location for signing the agreement. Another focus of external attention is whether Israel will support the final agreement. US officials stated that the US expects Israel and Gulf region allies to ultimately support the peace process. However, earlier on Friday, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Israel would not withdraw from parts of Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, and the West Bank of the Jordan River. In response, US officials said: "We will not ask any country to give up its right to self-defense. But if all parties are involved in the peace process, we hope other countries will adopt a similar attitude." Analysts believe that Israel's future position will still be an important variable in the final implementation of the agreement. In fact, financial markets have already started to react to the potential agreement. After Trump first mentioned being close to a deal on Thursday, international oil prices dropped significantly, US Treasury prices rose, and major global stock markets generally strengthened. It is widely believed that once the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal operations, geopolitical risks in the Middle East region will decrease, expectations for global energy supplies will improve, helping to alleviate inflationary pressures previously driven by wars. However, the formal text of the agreement has not yet been officially released. Iranian media previously disclosed a draft of the agreement, including provisions for the US to lift oil sanctions, lift naval blockades, and release frozen assets. But Trump later denied the reports on social media, stating that the publicly circulated contents had "nothing to do with the agreed written agreement on both sides." With both the US and Iran stating that negotiations have entered the final stage, whether the formal signing can be completed in the coming days will be a key event influencing the global energy market, financial markets, and the situation in the Middle East.