SpaceX (SPCX.US) makes record-breaking $75 billion IPO debut: The grey market shows bullish sentiment, but concerns about the small float cannot be ignored. Musk is one step away from having a trillion-dollar net worth.

SpaceX wrote history with a fundraising scale of $75 billion, becoming one of the highest valued public companies globally. Now, this integrated enterprise of rockets, satellites, and artificial intelligence needs market approval. For this company with a market value of $1.8 trillion and its founder Elon Musk, the first trading day on Friday will be a crucial test. Despite setting a record for the largest IPO in history, SpaceX still needs market trust for its grand plan - dominating AI, sending humans to the moon and Mars, and its controversial governance mechanism (which gives Musk near absolute control). "The cost of scaling up is extremely high," SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell said in an interview, "What we are doing requires huge investments." She also pointed out that even as a public company, SpaceX will focus on long-term goals rather than short-term quarterly performance. The market generally expects SpaceX to soar after opening. Signals regarding the opening range of its stock price will be released gradually after the opening at 9:30 am New York time. The unofficial pre-market market has priced in a hot debut, indicating a rise of at least 35%. Reportedly, the IPO received over four times oversubscription. SpaceX adopted a rare strategy of fixed pricing and fixed issuance size, resulting in underwriters being unable to fully capture the surging demand for subscriptions. Many potential buyers could only fight for limited allocations, setting the stage for a surge on the first day of trading. However, the unprecedented scale of this IPO makes the market dynamics more complex. The management undoubtedly has apprehensions of unexpected glitches, similar to the ones seen during the 2012 Facebook IPO. The performance on the first trading day will not only set the tone for future trends but will also directly impact the prospects of AI competitors Anthropic and OpenAI, which are potential giants in line for IPOs. "This heralds the arrival of the IPO wave," said John Lund, President of Goldman Sachs Group, in an interview, "With the development of AI infrastructure, the capital market is willing to provide financing for these extraordinary companies." This deal will also determine whether Musk can become the world's first trillionaire - a title currently beyond reach. According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, as of Thursday, Musk's net worth stands at around $970 billion. Among investors who did not receive sufficient shares, retail investors have been particularly active. Retail subscription orders total over $100 billion, with much of the demand remaining unmet. Another major driving force comes from index-tracking funds. It is estimated that due to the expected rapid inclusion of SpaceX in benchmark indices, index funds will be forced to buy, resulting in demand of up to $60 billion. A giant IPO does not guarantee success on the first day. The extremely small float may trigger significant price fluctuations, but what concerns the market more is the risk of unlocking when a larger quantity of shares becomes available for sale by insiders. "For me, the tricky part is how the market will gradually digest this selling pressure as the float unlocks," said Jerimiah Buckley, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors, "I think the $75 billion IPO itself will not have much impact, but if we have to digest a float of over a trillion dollars, that is what worries me more." Tesla Merger Expectations: Market Focus SpaceX's early performance is likely to play an extraordinary role in Musk's "end game" - many investors believe that Musk's end game is to merge it with Tesla, creating a "Musk Empire" that will be talked about for a long time. This will allow investors to buy into all of Musk's CEO visions, including Siasun Robot & Automation, self-driving cars, AI, and space data center, through a single stock. "There is no doubt that there are synergies between Tesla and SpaceX in the future," said Shotwell, "But currently, my top priority is to ensure the company is running smoothly." Although not yet formally announced, investors have been pushing the company to consider a merger with Tesla before the AI trading goes public. Early investor Peter Diamandis stated in May that a merger between SpaceX and Tesla after the IPO is only a matter of time. The businesses of the two companies are already entwined. In the fourth quarter of 2025, nearly one-fifth of the Cybertruck sold by Tesla went to SpaceX or Musk's other companies. Some of Musk's most ambitious projects - such as Terafab aiming to produce AI chips - require hundreds of billions of dollars from both Tesla and SpaceX to be invested before becoming successful. Analyst Steve Mann pointed out in a report on Wednesday that a merger between Tesla and SpaceX is far from certain in the short to medium term. "The Terafab chip project, the Macrohard software development project, and any role Tesla plays in space exploration will take several years to make an impact." Morningstar analysts believe that a potential decline in SpaceX's stock price in the coming weeks might make the merger more attractive to Tesla shareholders. "Given the soaring pre-IPO valuation of SpaceX, we doubt Tesla shareholders will be willing to buy into SpaceX at a significantly discounted price compared to the IPO unless the SpaceX stock price falls to around our fair value estimate of $63 per share." As Wall Street has given target prices for SpaceX - up to $190 per share - the debate about Musk's dream of making humanity a multi-planetary species is about to begin. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, and JPMorgan Chase lead the issuance, with 18 other banks participating. The company will be listed on the Nasdaq Global Select Market and Nasdaq Texas Market on Friday, with the stock symbol "SPCX."