$1.8 trillion valuation sparks controversy on Wall Street: SpaceX cannot be measured by traditional industry standards.

Just one day left before the largest IPO in the history of global capital markets officially goes public, Wall Street is trying to answer a seemingly simple but exceptionally complex question: Should SpaceX (SPCX.US) be considered as a space company, a communication company, or an artificial intelligence (AI) company? This question not only relates to the company's industry classification, but also directly affects whether its estimated valuation of approximately $1.8 trillion is reasonable. As the IPO approaches, investors are carefully studying SpaceX's financial data in hopes of finding a suitable valuation reference system. However, whether comparing it to aerospace companies, satellite communication operators, or AI infrastructure companies, it seems difficult to come up with a convincing answer. Significant differences in valuation can be seen across different industries. Based on an IPO price of $135, SpaceX is valued at approximately $1.75 trillion to $1.8 trillion. According to forecasts, the company's revenue in 2026 is expected to be around $34 billion, corresponding to a price-to-sales ratio (PS) of approximately 52 times. When compared to traditional aerospace companies, this valuation does not seem unreasonable. For example, the expected price-to-sales ratio of the American commercial aerospace company Rocket Lab (RKLB.US) is around 61 times, while the valuation of the satellite communication company AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US) is even higher at around 80 times sales. However, if SpaceX is compared to AI infrastructure companies, its valuation appears to be very aggressive. The AI cloud computing platform CoreWeave (CRWV.US) currently has a price-to-sales ratio of only about 3 times, while the valuation of the AI data center operator IREN Ltd (IREN.US) is around 7 times sales. In other words, if SpaceX is seen as an AI company, its valuation is much higher than the industry average. Starlink contributes the main revenue but is not the core of the valuation. Currently, most of SpaceX's revenue comes from its satellite internet business, Starlink. However, the market is clearly not pricing it based on the traditional logic of satellite communication companies. For example, the expected price-to-sales ratio of satellite communication operator ViaSat, Inc. (VSAT.US) is only about 2 times, while Iridium Communications Inc. (IRDM.US) is around 5 times. In contrast, SpaceX's overall valuation of 52 times sales is significantly higher than that of traditional communication companies. Calculations show that the valuation of the space launch business exceeds $800 billion, the valuation of the Starlink business is approximately $597 billion, and the valuation of the AI business is around $300 billion to $400 billion. Starlink is expected to generate revenue of approximately $15.9 billion in the next four quarters, corresponding to a valuation of about 38 times sales. AI business becomes the largest imagined space for valuation. The market is actually focusing on SpaceX's AI business. In recent years, with the development of AI and the company's signing of large-scale computing power cooperation agreements, SpaceX is increasingly being viewed by investors as an AI infrastructure provider. Analysts estimate that based on approximately $3.3 billion in annualized revenue by 2026, the valuation of its AI business corresponds to 94 to 125 times sales. However, if the AI computing power business expands rapidly in the coming years, the situation will be completely different. Previous disclosures indicate that the parent company of Alphabet Inc. Class C, Alphabet (GOOGL.US, GOOG.US), has signed a long-term computing power cooperation agreement with SpaceX; the AI company Anthropic is expected to pay approximately $45 billion to SpaceX in the coming years; and the AI programming company Cursor has also become an important customer. Analyst Mandeep Singh predicts that by 2027, SpaceX's AI business annual recurring revenue (ARR) is expected to reach $50 billion. If this goal is achieved, the valuation of its AI business will quickly drop to the range of 8 to 10 times sales, closer to mainstream AI infrastructure companies. Wall Street: SpaceX belongs in its own category. Faced with various valuation controversies, many analysts believe that trying to measure SpaceX using traditional industry standards is a mistake. Brad Conger, Chief Investment Officer at Hirtle Callaghan, commented, "Just as Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) has never been valued as an automobile company, SpaceX doesn't need to be simply compared to aerospace companies or AI companies." In his view, what the market is buying is not just SpaceX's business itself, but also betting on Musk's innovation capabilities and future vision. Eric Diton, President of Wealth Alliance, believes that investors are actually viewing SpaceX as a "strategic infrastructure asset". "AI companies are usually valued based on software or platform company valuations, and SpaceX is more like a platform company with key physical infrastructure and communication networks." He believes that the reason the market is giving SpaceX a high valuation is because it has rocket launch capabilities, a global satellite network, and AI computing power infrastructure, a combination that has almost no direct comparable in the global capital markets. After going public, it may become one of the most expensive stocks in the US market. Regardless of how it is calculated, SpaceX will become one of the most expensive companies in the US stock market after going public. Based on price-to-sales ratio, its valuation is even higher than that of the most expensive company in the current S&P 500 index, data analytics software company Palantir Technologies (PLTR.US), which currently has a price-to-sales ratio of about 34 times. However, supporters believe that the high valuation is supported by rapid growth. Kevin Moss, Managing Director of Private Shares Fund, stated that the long-term computing power cooperation agreements recently signed by Alphabet Inc. Class C and Anthropic will bring in over $2 billion in revenue for SpaceX each month. He said, "I don't think the market has seen a case of such massive revenue growth in such a short time." As trading officially begins on Friday, the question of whether SpaceX is a space company, a communication company, or an AI company may not be immediately answered. But what can be certain is that investors are willing to give it a valuation of $1.8 trillion, reflecting not only its current business scale, but also their expectations for its reshaping of the aerospace, communication, and AI industries in the future.