SpaceX ignites "epic" IPO: receiving four times oversubscription, is the valuation "boundless" or "the peak of the bubble"?

Elon Musk's space and artificial intelligence giant SpaceX is about to create capital market history. With only the final window period remaining before the pricing on June 11, the company's IPO has already recorded over four times oversubscription, with total subscriptions exceeding 250 billion US dollars, far exceeding the standard 75 billion US dollar fundraising target. Epic IPO enters countdown According to sources, due to overwhelming demand, underwriters are expected to stop accepting institutional orders after the market closes at 4 pm on Wednesday (June 10) in New York time. This IPO pricing mechanism is extremely rare, as it did not set a traditional price range, but directly locked in the issuance price at $135 per share. By this calculation, SpaceX will issue 5.556 billion shares, with an estimated market value of about 1.8 trillion US dollars, surpassing Meta and approaching Amazon in terms of market size. The company is scheduled to officially price the IPO on June 11, and list the next day on Nasdaq under the symbol "SPCX". Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, and JPMorgan Chase serve as underwriters for this offering. Is the valuation a "vast ocean of stars" or the "peak of a bubble"? There is significant disagreement among Wall Street institutions regarding this unprecedented valuation. Goldman Sachs, as the lead underwriter, emphasized in its report that the market is not only buying into the "Starlink" technology, but also betting on explosive growth in xAI. The Goldman Sachs model predicts that xAI revenue will skyrocket from approximately $3.2 billion in 2025 to $322 billion in 2030, surpassing Starlink as the largest revenue source. The logic of "hundredfold growth in five years" is the core support for the $1.8 trillion valuation. However, Barron's magazine is more cautious, stating directly that SpaceX's valuation is "too high", with a market-to-sales ratio of 40 times the expected revenue in 2026 and an EBITDA multiple of an astonishing 175 times. Analyst Allen Root believes that its fair value is closer to $1 trillion, and investors should patiently wait for the "stock price to return to a reasonable range". It is worth noting that although xAI is still in a huge loss state (with losses exceeding $6 billion in 2025), the strong cash cow capability demonstrated by Starlink with over tens of millions of users and an EBITDA profit margin of 63% provides a safety net for this "burning money" expansion.