Sealand: Maintains a "buy" rating on MOBVISTA (01860), with the expectation of a substantial increase in IAP in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Sealand released a research report predicting that the revenue of MOBVISTA (01860) from 2026 to 2028 will be 2.727/3.835/4.972 billion US dollars, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 0.128/0.245/0.386 billion US dollars, corresponding to a PE of 22/11/7X. Adjusted net profit is 1.41/2.63/4.25 billion US dollars. The company is a leading global programmatic advertising platform, using intelligent bidding strategies to acquire incremental budgets from medium to heavy game and non-game advertisers. The growth space is expected to continue to expand, maintaining a "buy" rating. Sealand's main points are as follows: Steady year-on-year revenue growth, game clients contribute to revenue elasticity, gross margin remains stable The company's revenue for 2026Q1 was 581 million US dollars (yoy+32.2%, qoq+0.73%), with game client revenue of 431 million US dollars (yoy+40.8%) contributing to core revenue growth, and non-game client revenue of 129 million US dollars (yoy+12.43%). The main reason for the seasonal decline in revenue from non-game clients is the apparent increase in electronic goods revenue, as well as the company's focus on AI new infrastructure platforms. The company's Take Rate for 2026Q1 was 26.0% (qoq+0.57pct), with a gross margin of 21.0%, maintaining stability in the platform phase. Sales and management expenses are well controlled The company's sales expenses for 2026Q1 were 23.11 million US dollars (yoy+33.7%), mainly due to an increase in bidding fees due to business expansion, with a sales expense ratio of 3.98% (yoy+0.04pct); management expenses were 18.78 million US dollars (yoy+16.4%), with a management expense ratio of 3.23%, mainly due to an increase in equity incentive expenses; research and development expenses were 61.97 million US dollars (yoy+46.9%), with research and development expense ratios of 10.66% (yoy+1.1pct), primarily due to new platform development, training and testing, and related expenses for effect optimization. The operating profit margin for 2026Q1 was 3.85%, with adjusted net profit of 24.21 million US dollars (yoy+10.6%), and adjusted net profit margin of 4.17%. The AIInfra new infrastructure platform is expected to go live in 2026Q4, accelerating the IAPROAS model The company's core research and development direction for 2026Q1 was the AI new infrastructure and MaxAgent multi-agent. As of June 2026, the company's next-generation AIInfra system has completed the main development, with increased research and development efficiency and model prediction accuracy. After undergoing testing in Q3, grey scale and stability verification, it is expected to go live in October, with the new infrastructure expected to reflect business effects in 2026Q4 through the IAPROAS model. The MarTech product line is advancing towards intelligent restructuring, expected to enter a new commercialization phase in 2026Q4, with technology dividends expected to steadily release. Introduction of shareholder Temasek, release of large equity incentives highlight the company's confidence in future development On May 26th, the company officially announced the introduction of strategic shareholder Temasek, headquartered in Singapore, with an investment of 150 million US dollars, representing 5.7% of the issued voting shares at an average purchase price of 12.99 Hong Kong dollars. The company has orderly exited some early investors and successfully introduced high-quality long-term investors including Temasek and other long-term institutions. In March 2026, the company released a stock incentive plan with clear performance/market value targets, focusing on incentivizing the CEO, core product development management team, and other management personnel, to strengthen the alignment of business teams with the interests of the listed company, effectively motivating the product and technology teams to generate revenue and enhance profit, highlighting the management's confidence in the company's medium to long-term development. Risk warning: Advertiser budget lower than expected, uncertainty in progress of AI advertising deployment model, industry competition, data privacy protection policy risks, unexpected expense control, etc.