China Galaxy Securities: The decline in takeaway orders is gradually becoming apparent, focus on opportunities for layout of tea drinks on the left side.

China Galaxy Securities released a research report stating that based on the expectation of stock prices reflecting the impact of subsidies in advance, it is believed that the stock prices of leading companies are already in the process of bottoming out on the left side. Mingxue (02097) and GUMING (01364) have both seen their FY26PE fall to around 15X, and it is recommended to pay attention to the turning point/catalyst of the fundamental of leading companies. 1) GUMING: New yogurt products are scheduled to be launched at the end of June, and hot baked products are set to be introduced in August, both of which are expected to generate incremental growth. The company has a leading position in the coffee product layout compared to its peers, giving it an advantage in the coffee competition in the second half of the year. 2) Mingxue: The proportion of takeout is relatively low, and the high base and shorter duration brought about by subsidies. Major points of China Galaxy Securities include: Core points Events: In May, the industry saw a decline of -2.5%, with professional services (-0.93%), tourism and scenic spots (-2.07%), hotel catering (-2.62%), and education (-4.33%). Important industry trends and news: 1) The new policy version of outbound tax rebates 2.0 has been officially implemented, and seven departments jointly issued a document expanding the tax refund outlets; 2) In late May 2026, market supervision departments in many places across the country cooperated with food delivery platforms to carry out pre-reform measures to remove over 120,000 "ghost delivery" businesses. June Investment Outlook How to view the relationship between takeout subsidies and stock prices? Based on the financial reports and performance meetings of Meituan and Alibaba, the trend of slowing down of subsidies on food delivery platforms in April-May has become a confirmed trend. The agency predicts that from May onwards, the same-store water in the industry will generally turn negative until September. However, the agency believes that the current stock prices of tea beverage companies have already reflected the impact of food delivery subsidies in advance. Year-to-date, other than AUNTEA JENNY, which has seen an increase due to changes in chip structure, the agency believes that there should be no further concerns about the impact of subsidies on same-store sales, and attention should be focused on the potential turning point/catalyst in the future: 1) The progress of dine-in recovery. The impact of the food delivery war on tea beverage industry lies in the deterioration of the UE model of tea beverage stores due to the lower actual collection rate of food delivery orders. Whether brands can increase the percentage of dine-in orders through strategic measures will determine the mid-term profitability of franchisees, and ultimately decide whether store scale will expand. 2) Creation of incremental volume through new popular products and coffee subsidies/squeezing the market share of coffee second-tier brands. Referring to Meituan Insight data, the agency predicts that the GMV scale of the tea beverage industry is between 240-250 billion, while the GMV of freshly made coffee/yogurt/ice cream is around 190 billion/10 billion/10 billion. In the second half of this year, the agency predicts that tea beverage brands will launch a new round of subsidy activities for coffee products. Under asymmetric competitive advantages, the agency believes that the subsidies of tea beverage chain brands can create a certain increase in coffee consumption and absorb some market share of traditional coffee brands. In addition, yogurt and ice cream are also key areas of competition for various brands this year, and category expansion will provide some support for same-store growth. Risk warning: Risk of intensified industry competition; Risk of macroeconomic downturn; Risk of policy changes.