In May, OPEC's oil production fell to the lowest level in 37 years. It is expected that the meeting on Sunday will discuss the possibility of increasing production.

Due to the ongoing suppression of oil production in the Middle East region by the US-Iran conflict, OPEC's crude oil production fell to its lowest level in decades last month. A survey showed that the crude oil production of the 11 current OPEC member countries decreased by 1.22 million barrels per day in May to 16.33 million barrels per day, dropping to the lowest level in at least 37 years. This data does not include the UAE, which withdrew from OPEC at the beginning of May after 60 years of membership. Iran's production decline accounts for more than half of the total decline, with its daily production plummeting by 710,000 barrels to the lowest point in five years, only 2.34 million barrels. The US Central Command has previously stated that the US military has deployed 127 commercial ships to enforce a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports. The second largest country in terms of production decline is Kuwait, whose daily production decreased by 310,000 barrels to 490,000 barrels, less than one-fifth of the level before the conflict. Following closely is OPEC's leader Saudi Arabia, whose daily production decreased by 240,000 barrels to 6.57 million barrels. Despite the significant drop in oil production, OPEC and its allies have symbolically increased quotas over the past few months, continuing to push forward the process of production recovery. Three representatives from OPEC+ stated that they expect major member countries to once again slightly increase their quota targets for July at a video conference scheduled for Sunday by 188,000 barrels per day. The meeting is one of four online meetings held that day by OPEC and its partners. In addition, representatives also pointed out that OPEC plans to further increase quotas in August and September, theoretically restoring the oil production reduced in the second phase of the output reduction plan over the past few years. The recovery of the third phase of the production cut is expected to continue until the end of the year, but officials stated this week that the plan may be accelerated. Dilemma OPEC is currently facing unprecedented internal turmoil, with the exit of the UAE being one of the catalysts. For a long time, the UAE has been dissatisfied with OPEC's quota restrictions, believing that it hinders new investments in production capacity. According to the survey, the UAE's crude oil production increased against the trend in May, with daily production increasing by 300,000 barrels to 2.44 million barrels. Insiders revealed last month that since Iran basically closed the Strait of Hormuz, companies such as Saudi Aramco and the UAE National Oil Company have managed to transport some crude oil through the strait. This further tests the unity within OPEC. The organization's production plans require strict discipline from each member country, but each member country has the motivation to secretly increase production to gain additional profits. Therefore, since its formation, overproduction, implicit discounts, and excessive production have been common, exposing the contradictions within this system. The US-Iran conflict has further heightened oil risks, and as more countries begin to consider the geopolitical risks of fossil fuels, analysts predict that oil demand will face significant cuts in the long term. For OPEC, this means more difficult production reduction targets and increasingly intense internal conflicts. This article is reprinted from "Cailianshe", written by Malan; edited by Xu Wenqiang.