Is SpaceX's $1.8 trillion valuation not expensive? Wall Street investment bank "adds fuel to the fire": AI revenue will increase 100 times by 2030.

Wall Street analysts have told potential investors in SpaceX's upcoming initial public offering (IPO) that they predict the company's artificial intelligence (AI) department's revenue will grow 100 times by 2030, confirming the company's target valuation of $1.8 trillion. Sources revealed that Evercore ISI research analysts estimate that SpaceX's AI department sales will reach $755 billion by 2031, far exceeding last year's $32 billion. The research team believes that by then SpaceX's total revenue will exceed $1 trillion, compared to $187 billion in 2025. Reportedly, on Thursday morning, several Wall Street firms met with potential buyers to present the terms of Elon Musk's rocket, satellite, and AI company SpaceX's IPO. The Texas-based company has already started its roadshow. According to documents submitted to the SEC, SpaceX plans to issue approximately 5.556 billion shares at a price of $135 per share. At this price, SpaceX's market value would be close to $1.77 trillion. The company plans to raise $75 billion through the IPO, potentially creating the largest IPO in history. This epic IPO has attracted several Wall Street investment banks to participate, with Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Corp, Citigroup, and JPMorgan Chase leading the way, with a total of 23 banks forming the underwriting group. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s research team has also set ambitious targets for SpaceX. According to sources, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. analysts predict that by 2030, SpaceX's total revenue will reach $474 billion, with AI department revenue increasing nearly 100 times to nearly $322 billion. Evercore, on the other hand, predicts SpaceX's total revenue to reach $486 billion by 2030, with AI department revenue at $331 billion. Sources revealed that Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. team predicts that after SpaceX's free cash flow hit a low of -$105 billion in 2029, it will exceed $72 billion by 2031. Evercore ISI research team predicts that by 2031, the proportion of AI department revenue will grow from less than one-fifth to 74%, while the revenue from its space business will decrease to 1%, compared to over 20% last year. Sources revealed that both of these Wall Street institutions predict that SpaceX's communications department (mainly comprised of its satellite internet services) sales will increase from approximately $11.4 billion last year to over $140 billion by 2030. At the same time, the rocket business department is expected to achieve revenues of approximately $8 billion in 2030, almost doubling from $4.1 billion last year. The teams also predict that SpaceX's capital expenditures will surge to over $360 billion by 2030, up from over $20 billion last year. Evercore forecasts that expenditures will nearly double by 2031, reaching $732 billion, with AI-related expenditures accounting for about $666 billion, over 50 times more than last year. When benchmarking valuations, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. selected various references, including NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US), Musk's Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US), as well as the seven major tech giants in the US market, space companies such as AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US) and Rocket Lab (RKLB.US), AI companies like CoreWeave (CRWV.US) and NEBIUS (NBIS.US), and the market darling Palantir (PLTR.US). SpaceX plans to complete its IPO pricing on June 11th and officially go public on June 12th. Its stock will be traded on the Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas exchange under the symbol "SPCX". Dan Ives, global tech research head at Wedbush Securities, stated that SpaceX's IPO will be a "watershed event", breaking records and setting the tone for subsequent IPOs of OpenAI and Anthropic PBC. The senior stock analyst said on Wednesday, "Get your popcorn ready: SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic are all coming, and the next few months will be very interesting." Short-selling games simmer It is worth noting that despite many investment banks supporting SpaceX, a short-selling game is quietly brewing around the sky-high valuation. Some analysts have frequently "poured cold water" on SpaceX before its IPO. Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens' discounted cash flow model predicts SpaceX's valuation to be only $780 billion, less than half of the target valuation. Franco Granda, a senior research analyst at PitchBook, believes SpaceX's reasonable valuation is $1.5 trillion, with the rest being premium for the space, AI narrative, and the "Musk halo". As SpaceX's IPO enters the roadshow phase, Jefferies Financial Group Inc., which did not make it onto the underwriting list, unexpectedly became the focus of the market. There are reports that some hedge funds that are skeptical of SpaceX's valuation have started contacting Jefferies Financial Group Inc., hoping to arrange short trades through the bank after SpaceX goes public. Since underwriting banks usually face more compliance and conflicts of interest restrictions during the IPO process, Jefferies Financial Group Inc., which is not part of the underwriting, is seen by the market as a potential channel for short-selling trades. However, Jefferies Financial Group Inc. CEO Rich Handler later denied the claims. He stated that Jefferies Financial Group Inc. is not involved in any short-selling business against SpaceX, nor will it promote any short trades related to SpaceX or other IPO projects.