Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) trillion-dollar valuation pillar faces a reality test: The size of the Robotaxi Texas fleet is only 42 vehicles, less than one-tenth of Waymo.

The United States Autonomous Taxi Competition is transitioning from a "technological narrative" to "operational scale." The latest disclosure from the Texas Department of Motor Vehicles (Texas DMV) database shows that Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) currently has only 42 authorized autonomous taxis (Robotaxis) in operation in Texas, which is less than one-tenth of Alphabet's (GOOGL.US) Waymo fleet. Data shows that as of the latest reporting date, Waymo has registered and obtained permits for 577 autonomous vehicles in Texas, leading the industry ahead of its competitors. At the time of this data release, a new regulatory law for commercial autonomous vehicles in Texas officially came into effect this week, signaling a new phase in the US autonomous driving industry of stricter regulations and scaled operations. Texas strengthens regulation: entering a new phase of autonomous driving industry It is worth noting that the Texas Senate Bill 2807 officially took effect on Thursday, establishing a systematic regulatory framework for commercial autonomous vehicles for the first time in the state. The new regulations strengthen requirements for commercial autonomous vehicle operation permits, safety responsibilities, and accident reporting mechanisms. Under the new law, autonomous operators providing commercial passenger or freight services must obtain authorization from the Texas Department of Motor Vehicles (TxDMV) and self-certify that their vehicles meet the Level 4 autonomy according to the SAE International standard - meaning the vehicles can operate under regular weather and typical road conditions without human intervention in the vehicle. Most importantly, the new legal framework allows vehicles to operate completely autonomously on public roads without traditional human control devices such as steering wheels and pedals, clearing legal barriers for true "driverless" commercial deployment. TxDMV simultaneously launched a website for tracking autonomous vehicles, providing the public for the first time with precise data on the number of autonomous vehicles registered by companies in Texas. TxDMV stated, "This registration data provides a public benchmark of where each company stands in Texas under the new regulatory framework." The background of the enforcement of the new law is that Texas previously had relatively lenient regulations for autonomous vehicles, only requiring them to "meet safety and insurance requirements similar to all other vehicles on the road" to be tested or operated. The new regulations fill this regulatory gap by requiring all operators to disclose fleet sizes and other safety information and report to the state government regularly. This legal shift means that the previously opaque commercial deployment of autonomous driving now has government-level public data benchmarks, allowing investors and the public to compare the actual progress of each company's deployment for the first time. Industry experts believe that this indicates that the US autonomous driving industry is transitioning from a relatively lax testing stage to a formal regulatory era. Especially after General Motors Company's (GM.US) Cruise temporarily suspended operations due to safety incidents, US regulatory agencies have increased their focus on the safety of autonomous driving. One reason why Waymo can rapidly expand its operational scale is because it has established a stronger trust at the regulatory level. In contrast, Tesla, Inc.'s Full Self-Driving (FSD) system has been investigated multiple times by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) in recent years. The market is concerned that if regulation further tightens in the future, the expansion speed of Tesla, Inc.'s autonomous driving may be limited. Data disclosure: Waymo leads by far, Tesla, Inc. is still in the "trial operation" stage On the same day the new law was implemented, the publicly available database from TxDMV revealed the true competitive landscape of the autonomous driving market in Texas. As of May 28th, Alphabet's Waymo has 577 authorized autonomous vehicles in operation in Texas, ranking first. Waymo not only has the largest fleet size but also operates the most mature autonomous driving platform for commercial operations in the United States. In March 2025, Waymo launched commercial driverless taxi services in Austin through a partnership with Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER.US), and has since expanded to Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio. The company currently operates nearly 4000 commercial autonomous vehicles across the US, with more than 20 million autonomous trips completed, covering cities such as Phoenix, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. On the other hand, Tesla, Inc.'s numbers show a stark contrast. As of the day the new law took effect, Tesla, Inc. had only 42 authorized autonomous vehicles in operation in Texas. Tesla, Inc. has been operating its autonomous services in Austin since June 2025 and recently expanded its services to parts of Dallas and Houston. However, Elon Musk had previously stated in the fall of last year that by the end of 2025, there would be "500 autonomous vehicles in Austin alone," but later lowered this expectation. The publicly available data indicates a significant gap between Tesla, Inc.'s actual deployment progress and its founder's previous public statements. In fact, Tesla, Inc.'s autonomous vehicle fleet size in Texas not only lags far behind Waymo but also ranks third. According to TxDMV data, Avride under Nebius ranks second with 317 authorized autonomous vehicles in operation in Texas. Avride was spun off from the autonomous driving department of the Russian tech giant Yandex and currently operates autonomous services in Texas through a partnership with Uber Technologies, Inc. Nuro has 47 vehicles, Zoox under Amazon.com, Inc. has 35 vehicles, and the Volkswagen subsidiary MOIA has 12 electric autonomous shuttle vans. Market experts point out that the official database from Texas for the first time publicly discloses the actual operational scale of autonomous driving companies, allowing the outside world for the first time to quantify the real commercial progress of each autonomous driving company. Autonomous driving competition begins to focus on "operational density" Market analysis suggests that the focus of the autonomous driving industry competition is shifting. In recent years, the industry has focused more on the technology itself, but now the capital markets are starting to pay more attention to "actual operational capabilities." Fleet size, number of operating cities, single vehicle utilization rate, order density, and regulatory compliance capability are becoming key indicators determining the industry's success. Waymo has established actual operational networks in several core cities in the US and has accumulated a large amount of real-world road data. In contrast, while Tesla, Inc. has the largest production base for smart vehicles globally, its autonomous driving business is still mainly in the testing phase in limited areas. However, Tesla, Inc.'s advantages are still evident. With its vast existing network of car owners and lower hardware costs, if its FSD technology is validated through regulation in the future, it theoretically could rapidly expand at a much lower cost than Waymo. This is also one of the main reasons why the capital markets still give Tesla, Inc. a high AI premium. Musk's "autonomous driving narrative" faces a reality check Autonomous driving has long been seen as the core of Musk's future valuation logic. Musk has repeatedly stated that autonomous taxis will completely change Tesla, Inc.'s business model in the future, with the company's value coming more from AI and autonomous driving networks than traditional car sales. Musk has emphasized on multiple earnings calls that the performance of FSD's takeover rate and the full deployment of autonomous driving will be the key to Tesla, Inc.'s trillion-dollar value. This year, Tesla, Inc.'s capital market narrative has increasingly revolved around its positioning as an "AI company." Wall Street's high price-earnings (PE) premium for Tesla, Inc. is largely based on its narrative as "not just a car company, but an AI and Siasun Robot & Automation company." However, the hard data from the Texas Department of Motor Vehicles strips away the grand narrative: in the operational stage of commercial deployment, Tesla, Inc. is still in the very early "testing" phase. In terms of actual operations, there is still a significant gap between Tesla, Inc. and Waymo. Specifically, in terms of fleet size, operational coverage, and commercial maturity, Waymo still holds an absolute leading position. Analysts point out that Waymo's rapid fleet expansion is closely related to its use of a "heavy sensor + high-precision map" approach. Waymo vehicles are typically equipped with LiDAR, millimeter-wave radar, and a multi-sensor fusion system, providing greater stability and regulatory acceptance in complex urban environments. On the other hand, Tesla, Inc. has chosen a completely different path. Its autonomous taxis are equipped with a pure visual perception system, relying on cameras and end-to-end neural networks, without using LiDAR or high-precision maps. The advantage of this approach lies in the theoretical hardware cost advantage and quicker cross-regional expansion potential - because it does not require mapping each city individually. However, the downside is that the reliability of the pure visual approach remains questionable in adverse weather, complex lighting, and unusual road conditions. More importantly, Tesla, Inc.'s FSD software is currently classified as a Level 2 advanced driver assistance system on consumer vehicles, meaning that drivers must monitor road conditions at all times and be ready to take over. This time, Tesla, Inc. has self-certified its autonomous driving as Level 4 based on the new law in Texas; however, the company clarified that this higher-level certification "applies only to Tesla, Inc.'s commercial fleet operations and does not change the legal status of the L2 FSD monitoring software currently used in consumer-owned vehicles." The pace of the autonomous driving business is facing reassessment After the disclosure of Texas data, discussions on the commercialization pace of the autonomous driving industry have heated up once again on Wall Street. Some investment firms believe that the true profitability of the autonomous driving industry may still take several years to materialize. Under the current operating model, whether it's Waymo or other players, they still face high hardware, insurance, remote monitoring, and maintenance costs. Meanwhile, the competitive landscape of the autonomous driving industry is accelerating differentiation. Apart from Waymo and Tesla, Inc., Zoox under Amazon.com, Inc., Nuro, and Chinese autonomous driving companies are also making continuous efforts in the US market. Analysts point out that the future autonomous driving market may not form a "one-size-fits-all" pattern but is more likely to evolve into a regionalized, multi-platform coexistence model. Musk stated at an international smart travel summit in Tel Aviv on May 18 that the company expects "fully autonomous driverless taxis to be widely available in the US by the end of 2026" and plans to expand services to nine cities next month. However, faced with the data disclosed by Texas, the feasibility of these ambitious claims remains highly questionable. One simple fact is that after nearly a year of operation, Tesla, Inc. has only 42 legally authorized autonomous vehicles in Texas where its headquarters are located, compared to Musk's prediction last fall of "500 vehicles in Austin alone." While Tesla, Inc. has submitted autonomous driving test permit applications to Arizona, Nevada, and Florida, it has not started paid driverless passenger services in any state. Meanwhile, the Cybercab model, which went into production in April 2026 - a dedicated driverless taxi without a steering wheel and pedals - has not appeared in the registration list in Texas. In fact, in the past 30 days, the number of Tesla, Inc.'s autonomous vehicles has actually decreased. For investors, the significance of this new publicly available database from TxDMV goes far beyond a comparison of fleet sizes. In Tesla, Inc.'s valuation narrative, autonomous driving has always been portrayed as the core engine for future high-profit software revenue. Morgan Stanley had previously predicted that by 2032, Waymo and Tesla, Inc. would combine to occupy about 70% of the US autonomous driving mileage market share. However, the data from Texas shows that at least in terms of fleet size, this estimate remains highly uncertain. The new transparency tool of regulations in Texas is providing clearer answers on where Tesla, Inc. stands in this commercial competition.