The May PMI in the United States shows economic growth slowing down, with inflation pressure rising to the highest level since 2022.

The latest US May S&P Global PMI preliminary data shows that the US economy continued to slow down amid rising energy costs and supply chain pressures due to conflicts in the Middle East, with business costs and inflation pressures noticeably increasing. The data shows that the US May S&P Global Composite PMI output index was 51.7, unchanged from April, but the overall economic growth remains at a relatively low level this year. The US services PMI fell to 50.9, hitting a two-month low, while the manufacturing PMI rose to 55.3, hitting the highest level since May 2022. The manufacturing output index rose to 56.2, reaching a 49-month high. However, S&P Global pointed out that the strong growth in manufacturing was partly driven by businesses stockpiling in advance, while the service sector continued to be dragged down by weak demand, price increases, and geopolitical uncertainties. The report shows that the ongoing interruptions in war-related supply chains and soaring energy prices are continuing to push up business costs in the US. The increase in business input costs in May reached the highest level since the end of 2022, with manufacturing input costs recording the largest monthly increase since June 2022. At the same time, the increase in sales prices for US businesses also rose to the highest level since August 2022. The inflation in manufacturing goods prices hit the highest level since September 2022, while service price inflation rose to a 10-month high. Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson of S&P Global stated that the negative economic impact of the Middle East war is becoming increasingly evident in business surveys. He pointed out, "Business activity is only maintaining a moderate level of growth, with demand being squeezed by further price increases, while businesses are reducing employment due to concerns about rising costs and economic prospects." Williamson warned that the US GDP annualized growth rate in the second quarter may struggle to exceed 1%. He also stated that current order growth has fallen to the lowest level in nearly two years, and the previous wave of "precautionary stocking" due to concerns about supply shortages and price increases may not sustain in the long term. The data shows that US manufacturing continues to benefit from AI, tech investments, and business inventory replenishment needs. Although new orders in manufacturing slowed slightly in May compared to April, they remained the second strongest level in the past four years. At the same time, manufacturing employment saw the largest increase in nearly 11 months. However, manufacturing growth heavily relies on domestic demand, while export orders continue to decline. In contrast, the US service sector is under significant pressure. New business growth in the service sector only maintained weak expansion, with exports recording the largest decline in six years. Businesses widely reported that price increases and uncertainty are suppressing consumer demand, especially in consumer-facing service industries. At the same time, the rate of decline in service sector employment is at the second-highest level since May 2020. The report shows a significant divergence in US businesses' outlook for the future. Optimism among service sector businesses has fallen to the lowest level since April 2025, as well as the second lowest since October 2022. Businesses are concerned that high prices, high interest rates, and political uncertainties may further suppress demand. On the other hand, confidence among manufacturing businesses has risen to the highest level since February this year and remains relatively high since the pandemic. S&P Global pointed out that this is mainly due to investments in AI, order growth, and expectations of manufacturing reshoring. The report also shows that supply chain issues in US manufacturing are deteriorating. The extent of the increase in supplier delivery times in May reached the highest level since August 2022. Businesses reported that disruptions in shipping due to the Middle East war and hoarding behaviors further exacerbated existing supply constraints. Analysts point out that the latest PMI data once again shows that the US economy is facing a complex situation of "slowing growth + rising inflation." Against the backdrop of rising energy prices, supply chain tensions, and the resurgence of inflation pressures, the uncertainty surrounding the future monetary policy path of the Federal Reserve is further increasing.