Preview of US Stock Market | The three major stock index futures fell together, negotiations between the US and Iran were deadlocked, and SpaceX submitted its IPO filing to sprint towards Nasdaq.

Pre-Market Market Trends 1. As of May 21st (Thursday), the futures for the three main stock indexes in the US all fell pre-market. At the time of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 0.11%, the S&P 500 index futures were down 0.24%, and the Nasdaq futures were down 0.38%. 2. As of writing, the German DAX index was down 0.45%, the UK FTSE 100 index was down 0.36%, the French CAC 40 index was down 0.49%, and the European Stoxx 50 index was down 0.45%. 3. As of writing, WTI crude oil was up 2.22% at $100.44 per barrel, while Brent crude oil was up 1.68% at $106.78 per barrel. Market News Deadly formula for bond market volatility: uncontrollable debt, persistent inflation, rising long-term rates. In a column in the Wall Street Journal, it was pointed out that the spike in bond yields over the past week is not a question of why it rose so much, but why it didn't happen sooner. The US government's borrowing has long been out of control, with inflation persistently above the Federal Reserve's 2% target since 2022, coupled with companies borrowing heavily for AI development, long-term rates should be higher. Investors are demanding more compensation for lending money for years rather than months, reflecting a judgment that debt, inflation, and populism will continue to exist, which may not mean a bond market crisis is imminent, but is likely to bring upward pressure on rates in the coming years. UAE races to build "energy lifeline" after exiting OPEC! New pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz is nearly 50% complete. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), said on Wednesday that the UAE has completed nearly 50% of the construction of a second oil pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. ADNOC is accelerating the construction of an oil pipeline that runs from inland fields to the East Coast port of Fujairah. The port of Fujairah is located in the Arabian Sea and is not affected by the conditions of the Strait of Hormuz. Due to conflicts in the Middle East, the UAE has expedited the construction of this project. The pipeline is expected to start operations in 2027, doubling ADNOC's export capacity through the port of Fujairah to reach 3 million barrels per day. Stalemate in US-Iran talks: Netanyahu extremely skeptical of Iran negotiations, wants to resume military action, disagrees with Trump; Iranian Supreme Leader orders close to weapons-grade uranium to stay in the country. According to sources, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is extremely skeptical of negotiations with Iran and hopes to resume military action. US President Trump had a "difficult call" with Netanyahu on Tuesday to discuss attempts to reach a new agreement with Iran. After the call, Netanyahu expressed deep concern, as the two leaders disagreed on the next steps. Mediators such as Qatar and Pakistan have prepared a revised peace memorandum. Trump told Netanyahu that mediators are drafting an "intention document" to formally end the war and start 30 days of negotiations. Earlier reports speculated that Washington had caved to Israeli lobbying on the Iran issue. In addition, sources in Iran stated on the afternoon of the 21st that the Iranian Supreme Leader had ordered that uranium close to weapons-grade must stay in Iran. The sources added that this directive reflects a consensus among Iranian authorities. Iran conflict ignites market anxiety! US Treasury Secretary speaks: rising yields and inflation are "temporary". The energy shock caused by the Iran situation, combined with growing inflation concerns and cooling rate cut expectations, has left bond investors and central bank officials around the world feeling anxious. However, US Treasury Secretary Scott Berstein believes that the currently elevated bond yields and overall inflation are temporary and will gradually fall once the conflicts subside. Warning from a prominent investment bank: highly leveraged US stock market, American economy has become a "leveraged bet on AI". As artificial intelligence transitions from a narrative theme on Wall Street to a substantive engine of US economic growth, a deeper question is emerging: has the world's largest economy overly tied its fate to a rapidly evolving technology? Peter Orszag, CEO of prominent investment bank Lazad, gave a warning in an interview on Wednesday: "The American economy has become a leveraged bet on the success of artificial intelligence." Orszag believes that the growth of the US economy is heavily dependent on two interwoven pillars - AI itself and high-income consumers benefiting from the rise in the stock market driven by AI. The vulnerability of this growth chain lies in the fact that if the AI narrative falters, both engines could stall simultaneously. Quarterly revenue >2025 annual revenue! Anthropic expects Q2 revenue to reach $10.9 billion, achieving quarterly profit for the first time. According to sources, artificial intelligence (AI) startup Anthropic is set to achieve $10.9 billion in revenue in the second quarter, surpassing its annual sales figure from last year. If Anthropic reaches this goal, it will achieve its first quarterly profit. The sources also added that Anthropic's Q1 revenue was $4.8 billion, doubling its sales in just a few months. Anthropic announced last month that its annualized revenue (ARR) had exceeded $30 billion, a significant increase from the $9 billion at the end of 2025. Additionally, a report from a third-party research firm, Semi Analysis, in early May indicated that Anthropic's annualized revenue had increased to around $44 billion. This growth rate far exceeds that of OpenAI during the same period. Company single-handedly props up Bitcoin price! Strategy (MSTR.US) continues to make large-scale purchases amid weak market demand. Recent data shows that Strategy (MSTR.US) has become a core force supporting the price of Bitcoin. Currently, the price of Bitcoin is around $77,500, a decrease of nearly 30% from a year ago. However, amidst overall weak market demand, Strategy led by Saylor is still making large-scale purchases of Bitcoin. According to company disclosure documents, Strategy has accumulated 171,238 bitcoins so far this year. This scale even exceeds the approximately 62,000 bitcoins newly produced by the global mining network during the same period. Construction equipment business offsets softness in agricultural sector, Deere & Company (DE.US) achieves revenue growth in Q2. Deere & Company saw sales growth in the second quarter, primarily driven by growth in the construction equipment business, effectively offsetting the soft performance in the agricultural machinery sector. The company reported a net profit of $1.77 billion for the quarter, or $6.55 per share, compared to a net profit of $1.8 billion, or $6.64 per share, in the same period last year. Analysts had previously expected earnings per share of $5.70. Net sales and total revenue increased by 5%, reaching $13.37 billion, compared to Wall Street's expectations of $12.73 billion. E-commerce business drives growth, Walmart Inc. (WMT.US) Q1 revenue exceeds expectations. In the latest quarter, Walmart Inc. saw sales growth, driven by consumer pursuit of value for money and increased online purchasing behavior. In the three months ending on May 1st, the retail giant's US same-store sales (sales from stores and digital channels operated for at least 12 months) increased by 4.1%, with total revenue reaching $177.8 billion, up 7.3% year-on-year, slightly exceeding expectations. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.66, in line with expectations. The company stated that its main business segments and online channels all saw sales growth, with strong demand from high-income households. The e-commerce business has become a significant driver of performance growth: e-commerce sales in the US increased by 26% in the quarter, driven primarily by growth in advertising business and third-party online sales. Upcoming Important Economic Data and Events 8:30 PM Beijing time: Initial jobless claims in the US up to May 16th. 9:45 PM Beijing time: May SPGI Manufacturing PMI preliminary estimate in the US. 12:20 AM Beijing time next day: FOMC voter and Richmond Fed Chair Barkin speech in 2027. 1:00 AM Beijing time next day: 10-year TIPS auction in the US on May 21st. Earnings Preview Friday morning: WorkDay(WDAY.US), Ross Stores, Inc.(ROST.US), Take-two Interactive Software(TTWO.US), Zoom(ZM.US)