Falling without stopping! Stalemate in the Hormuz Strait pushes up oil prices; copper prices fall for three consecutive days due to inflation concerns.

Copper prices further expanded their decline, deepening market concerns about the global inflation outlook, and industrial commodities under comprehensive pressure. The negotiations between the US and Iran have once again stalled, making the already fragile geopolitical situation more tense. US President Trump has once again issued threats against Iran, and there are still huge differences between the two sides on ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices higher. Since the ceasefire in early April, the two sides have not been able to make substantial breakthroughs in the game regarding nuclear issues, lifting sanctions, and freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. On May 12, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson explicitly stated that ending the conflict and lifting the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz are prerequisites for any negotiations with the US and accused the US of demanding Iran's "total surrender" rather than genuine dialogue. On the same day, an Iranian parliament official warned that if the country is attacked again, they may increase uranium enrichment levels to 90%, approaching weapon-grade levels. The continued stalemate continues to drive up energy prices. On May 10, Iran submitted a 14-point counterproposal through the intermediary Pakistan, demanding that the US lift all sanctions on Iranian oil exports within 30 days and refusing to dismantle nuclear facilities. Trump immediately criticized Iran's response as "completely unacceptable" on social media, leading to international oil prices rising above $100 per barrel again. The latest news on May 18 shows that Trump is "losing patience with negotiations day by day," and the US Department of Defense has prepared a series of military strike plans, including precise strikes on Iran's energy facilities and infrastructure. Analysts point out that the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is transmitting global inflation pressure through two channels: direct increases in energy costs from rising oil prices and significant increases in overseas shipping costs and prices of raw materials such as sulfur and sulfuric acid, putting pressure on industrial enterprises from the cost side. As a result, the market further anticipates that major central banks may have to maintain tight monetary policies to curb inflation, potentially dragging down global economic growth and suppressing manufacturing demand - posing a negative impact on industrial metals such as copper, which are dependent on economic cycles. During early Asian trading, copper prices fell by 1.2% to $13,394.50 per metric ton, following a cumulative drop of over 4% from the historical high closing price set on Wednesday in the previous two trading days. As of the time of publication, the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price was $13,493 per metric ton, down by 0.39%; zinc prices fell by 0.5%, and aluminum prices slightly dropped. Despite short-term pressure, copper prices have accumulated nearly 9% year-to-date. Some analysts point out that as the US-Iran conflict situation becomes normalized, the non-ferrous metals market will gradually return to the logic of pricing based on supply and demand fundamentals. Disruptions in copper mine supply and rigid demand from sectors such as grid construction and semiconductors will continue to provide some support for prices. At the same time, the reemergence of overseas inflation expectations is also fueling expectations of a tightening of the monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, making macroeconomic pressures difficult to dissipate in the short term. The direction of copper prices currently depends heavily on multiple variables, and whether the geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to evolve will be closely related to this. In the market environment of intertwined uncertainties, copper prices are expected to continue in a high fluctuation pattern.