Negotiations stall, ceasefire on the brink of collapse. What is the key issue in the US-Iran peace agreement?

Since the ceasefire agreement was reached in April, the United States and Iran have been in a stalemate, failing to reach an agreement to end the war that has lasted for over two months and triggered a global energy crisis. Due to Iran's continued tight control over navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and the United States' refusal to lift the maritime blockade against Iranian-related ships, the situation in the Middle East remains tense. Recently, U.S. President Trump publicly expressed dissatisfaction with Iran's response to the ceasefire proposal, calling it "completely unacceptable." Trump also stated that the ceasefire agreement between the two parties is still in effect, but is "extremely fragile" and is in a "life support" state. According to the latest news, insiders from the U.S. government revealed that due to the lack of progress in the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, the U.S. side is now "more seriously considering" resuming military actions against Iran than in the past few weeks. U.S. officials claim that there are differing opinions within the U.S. government regarding the Iran issue. Some officials advocate taking a tougher stance, including conducting more targeted strikes to weaken Iran and force concessions at the negotiation table; while others hope to give diplomatic negotiations more time. It is also reported that one of the options currently being considered by the U.S. is to restart the so-called "Freedom Plan" to "guide" ships through the Strait of Hormuz; another option is to resume military actions against Iran. Furthermore, on May 11th local time, the Chairman of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Mohammad Islami, stated in a meeting that nuclear technology and uranium enrichment issues will not be included in any potential negotiation agenda between Iran and the United States. Islami said, "The nuclear issue will not be included in the negotiation agenda with the United States, and uranium enrichment issues are non-negotiable. Iran is prepared to protect its nuclear facilities and assets." Islami emphasized that Iran's nuclear industry is peaceful in nature and will always remain peaceful. Currently, there are significant differences between the demands of the U.S. and Iran, but both countries seem to be seeking a short-term agreement to resolve the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, while leaving more complex issues, such as the future of Iran's nuclear program, for further negotiations. Below are some key obstacles to reaching a lasting, comprehensive, and peaceful agreement between the U.S. and Iran. Strait of Hormuz The Strait of Hormuz handles about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies transportation, and is also an important TRADELINK for other commodities. Following the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28th, Iran restricted passage through this vital waterway, leading to a spike in energy prices and greater inflationary pressure on governments and consumers worldwide. Meanwhile, Iran continues to transport its crude oil exports through the strait, allowing only some other vessels to pass through - often requiring safe passage negotiations and sometimes demanding fees of up to $2 million. After the outbreak of war, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz plummeted The U.S. is attempting to pressure Iran economically to restore "free passage" through the Strait of Hormuz, and has imposed blockades on ships that have stopped at or are headed to Iranian ports. This has led to a standoff between the two sides. Iran has stated that it will not reopen the strait until the U.S. lifts the blockade. Trump insists that the blockade will not be lifted until an agreement is signed. Iran is unlikely to easily give up its influence over this waterway, and consequently global economy, unless the U.S. makes concessions. Iran has repeatedly stated its desire to maintain control over the strait in the long term and is pushing for legislation to impose fees on passing ships. Iran's Nuclear Program The U.S. seeks to deprive Iran of its nuclear capabilities beyond the Bushehr nuclear power plant, to ensure it cannot develop nuclear weapons. Iran has long denied any intention to develop nuclear weapons - a claim that some Western governments have questioned, insisting on its right to conduct uranium enrichment for civilian purposes. Currently, the Trump administration is pushing for Iran to suspend uranium enrichment activities for a fixed period. According to media reports citing insider sources, Iran is willing to accept a shorter suspension arrangement than the 20-year period proposed by the U.S. In addition to future uranium enrichment activities, Iran's existing enriched uranium stockpile is also a key issue. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has stated that the war against Iran is not over until these nuclear materials are removed and any remaining enrichment capacity is dismantled. If the agreement fails to meet these conditions, Israel may launch military intervention again. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) - the United Nations' nuclear watchdog - last confirmed Iran's uranium reserves in June 2025, before the U.S. and Israel's airstrikes on Iran. IAEA inspectors confirmed that Iran has stockpiled 441 kilograms (972 pounds) of 60% enriched uranium, enough to produce around 12 nuclear bombs. Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium has significantly increased in the past According to reports, Iran has proposed to dilute some of the highly enriched uranium and transport the rest to a third country, but has also requested guarantees - that if the U.S. withdraws from the peace agreement, these transferred nuclear materials must be returned. Lebanon Conflict Iran insists that any agreement to end the war must also terminate the fighting in Lebanon. Currently, Israel is simultaneously waging war against the Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. The U.S. is pushing to de-escalate the situation in Lebanon through another diplomatic channel. In mid-April, the U.S. brokered a fragile ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, followed by talks between the two parties in Washington. However, Hezbollah did not participate in the negotiations. These discussions have not made significant progress yet, and since the ceasefire was announced, Israel and Hezbollah have continued to attack each other. One of Israel's core demands is for Hezbollah to disarm. Hezbollah refuses to dismantle its military capabilities, and the Lebanese government has also been unable to disarm the group in the past. Sanctions, Ballistic Missile Program, and Proxy Armed Forces Other peace conditions proposed by Iran include lifting sanctions and unfreezing assets. Reports indicate that the U.S. made some concessions on these issues in a proposal presented in May. Additionally, Iran has put forward some demands that the U.S. may find difficult to accept, such as seeking war reparations and the withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the Middle East region. The U.S. demands that Iran restrict its ballistic missile program. These weapons pose a conventional military threat beyond the Middle East region. If Iran decides to develop nuclear weapons capability, ballistic missiles can also be used as nuclear warhead delivery vehicles. The Trump administration also demands that Iran stop providing weapons and funding to regional armed groups, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthi rebels in Yemen - both of which are designated as terrorist organizations by the U.S. Iran views its proxy network as an integral part of the "Axis of Resistance" in the Middle East to expand its influence. For the U.S., this war has driven gasoline prices to over $4.50 per gallon for the first time since 2022, exacerbating consumer burdens and casting shadows over Trump and the Republican Party's prospects in the upcoming midterm elections. As domestic political and economic pressures continue to intensify, and calls for finding an "exit path" from the war rise, Trump may be willing to compromise on some of the extreme demands and temporarily set aside some key issues.