Wall Street leading banks analyze the oil market: "Race against time"! Whether the oil price will break records depends on June.

As the blockade of the Hormuz Strait enters its 11th week, Wall Street is reassessing the global crude oil pricing framework with unprecedented density. Over the weekend, both the U.S. and Iran once again rejected each other's ceasefire proposals, causing Brent crude oil to surge by 4.6% to $105.99 per barrel on Monday. Since the outbreak of the Iran war at the end of February, oil prices have risen by nearly 50%. From Morgan Stanley's "race against time," to Citibank's warning of "tail risks," and Barclays' rare hawkish statement that "risk can only go up," Wall Street is using a series of heavyweight research reports to collectively outline a spectrum of oil price paths from "moderate upward movement" to "historic highs" - forming the core framework for assessing global macroeconomic impacts in the months ahead. Price forecasts spectrum from $100 to $200 on Wall Street Morgan Stanley: The precise framework of "racing against time" In their latest research report, Morgan Stanley's Chief Commodity Strategist Martijn Rats and his team revealed a number with significant pricing implications: the U.S. daily adds 3.8 million barrels of exports, while China reduces its daily imports by 5.5 million barrels, providing a total supply buffer of up to 9.3 million barrels per day to the global market. This scale explains why, despite nearly a billion barrels of supply losses, Brent oil prices have not surpassed the peak after the 2022 Russia-Ukraine War. However, this defense line is approaching a critical point. Morgan Stanley clearly warns: if the blockade continues until late June or July, the buffering mechanism will be completely depleted. In a bullish scenario, Brent crude oil prices could rise to $130 to $150 per barrel. Morgan Stanley leaves a weighty sentence in the report: "The path is crucial - the reopening in June and the partial intactness of the U.S.-China buffer is the baseline scenario; if the closure continues until late June or July, then the Brent oil price will have to feel the pressure that was previously avoided." Even in the most optimistic scenario, Morgan Stanley has made a warning judgment that has put the market on alert: even if the Hormuz Strait reopens immediately tomorrow, the time needed for oil fields to restart, damaged refineries to be repaired, and oil tanker tonnage to be reallocated means that the market will still face an irreversible supply loss of a billion barrels by 2026. The bank's benchmark forecast for the quarter is $110 per barrel for this quarter, $100 for the next three months, and $90 for the fourth quarter. Goldman Sachs: $90 - Intensive upward revisions in oil price forecasts Goldman Sachs has released a series of intensive price reassessment signals over the past three weeks. On May 8, in a research report sent to global institutional clients, the bank significantly raised its 2026 Brent oil price forecast from $77 to $85, qualitatively describing the current supply shock as "one of the largest supply shocks in the history of the oil market," comparable to the oil crises of the 1970s and the gas crisis of 2022. Data tracked by the bank shows that global commercial crude oil inventories have fallen to a nearly eight-year low of about 101 days of demand, and it is expected to further contract to 98 days by the end of May; whereas the finished oil buffer has rapidly shrunk from 50 days of demand before the war to 45 days - aviation fuel and naphtha inventories are approaching operational pressure levels. More importantly, Goldman Sachs has introduced an observation that mainstream institutions have not fully discussed before in their report: if the normalization process of the Hormuz Strait remains stagnant after mid-June, oil prices may surpass the peaks of 2008 and 2022. The bank simultaneously raised its fourth-quarter Brent forecast to $90, a significant increase of $10 from its previous forecast of $80. Goldman Sachs' Marquee MarketView survey of 837 institutional clients also shows that 43% of respondents expect shipping to return to normal after July, with about one-third predicting Brent crude oil prices to be between $80 and $90 by the end of the year. This means that many investors are still betting on a more optimistic timeline, creating significant tension between the increasingly upward forecasts of Goldman Sachs itself. Citibank: $120 - Negotiation deadlock risk Citibank is currently anchored on "high anchoring, escalating risk" on Wall Street. The bank maintains its short-term forecast of $120 per barrel for Brent crude oil in the next three months, with an average price of $110 in the second quarter, falling to $95 in the third quarter, and further dropping to $80 in the fourth quarter. However, the real marginal information from Citibank is not in the forecast numbers themselves, but in the critical shift in its qualitative assessment of oil price risks. The bank emphasizes in its latest report: "We continue to believe that the oil market is underestimating the duration of the blockade and tail risks." Citibank points out that the ongoing deadlock in negotiations between the U.S. and Iran increases the short-term risk of further price increases on the existing high level, even though China's recent daily reduction of about 5.5 million barrels of crude oil imports has helped alleviate some supply pressure. This means that Citibank's warning of asymmetric risk distribution: after accelerating inventory decline, the release of strategic oil reserves, contraction in Chinese imports, and intermittent signals of easing situation, the real upside risk lies in the probability of a breakdown in negotiations. JP Morgan: "If the blockade continues to mid-May, $150 is within reach" In a market-moving research report released in April, JP Morgan predicted that if the blockade of the Hormuz Strait continued until mid-May, Brent could rise to $120-130 in the short term, even surpassing $150. However, JP Morgan's real anchor point is closer to Goldman Sachs', assuming that the conflict is resolved relatively quickly and OPEC+ accelerates production recovery. As of May 11, this early scenario has partially materialized - the middle of May has arrived, and while oil prices have not reached $150, they have indeed remained in the range of $105-109 for several weeks. The latest pricing in the derivatives market shows that the probability of WTI crude oil reaching $150 has been priced at 39.5%. Bank of America: "$100 is the new normal" - A comprehensive reevaluation of the macroeconomic framework According to reports, Bank of America fully revised its economic outlook framework in April. The bank's economist Claudio Irigoyen's latest assessment is based on an unprecedented benchmark: with the ongoing Hormuz crisis, oil prices will remain around $100 per barrel for the whole year, a stark contrast to Wall Street's forecast of $50 to $60 per barrel by the end of 2025. Irigoyen characterizes the current situation as a "mild inflationary shock" - the rapid transmission of energy price increases to inflation far exceeds the drag on GDP. Based on this, Bank of America has revised its U.S. inflation forecast from 2.8% to 3.6%, and its growth forecast from 2.8% to 2.3%; global inflation forecast has been raised to 3.3%, and growth forecast has been reduced to 3.1%. In an escalated scenario, Bank of America warns that oil prices could average $130, with a peak potentially exceeding $150. The bank's head of commodity research, Francisco Blanch, also stated prophetically in March, "If we're still in the same situation by May, we might see oil prices skyrocket to $160 per barrel. If the situation persists, Brent could exceed $200." U.S.-Iran negotiation impasse The core disagreement between the U.S. and Iran centers around two core provisions in a "one-page memo": Iran halting uranium enrichment activities and transferring existing high-enriched uranium stocks out of the country, and the U.S. lifting sanctions and opening the blocked Hormuz Strait. The U.S. is seeking a suspension of 15 to 20 years for uranium enrichment, while Iran only agrees to 5 years; the current compromise range being debated by both sides is 12 to 15 years, after which Iran would be allowed to resume uranium enrichment up to 3.67% purity - while Iran currently has high-enriched uranium at about 60% purity, with the purity needed for nuclear weapons being 90%. On Monday, President Trump publicly rejected Iran's response to the latest peace proposal from the U.S., while an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson described their text as "reasonable and generous", suggesting that there is still a vast gulf between the two sides. U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo's public statements indicate a softening of strategic intentions - Washington has quietly abandoned its previous four goals (destroying Iran's ballistic missile capabilities, disbanding its navy, cutting off support for proxy armed groups, ensuring Iran never acquires nuclear weapons), meaning the U.S. has shifted its bottom line on the negotiation table: prioritizing resolving the Hormuz issue first, while leaving the nuclear issue for subsequent negotiations. However, whether Iran is willing to follow this rhythm is still unclear. U.S. Central Command continues to enforce a maritime blockade, with 58 commercial vessels' routes altered and 4 ships rendered inoperable since April 13; while Azziz, chairman of Iran's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, issued a rare warning to the international community: the Hormuz Strait is a "vital lifeline. Do not close its gate with your own hands." Saudi Aramco's CEO issued a rare stern warning on the same day: the global energy system has lost approximately 1 billion barrels of supply in the past two months, and even if the strait were to reopen immediately, it would take a "considerable time" for the energy system to return to normal. A senior executive at the German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd revealed that the company has incurred an additional cost of at least $50 million per week since the outbreak of hostilities, totaling nearly $500 million. Summary In the latest assessments of the six major Wall Street firms, a common point of anticipation is emerging - June. It is anchoring the key juncture of logic bifurcation in the frameworks of various institutions with almost mathematical precision: Morgan Stanley uses June as the dividing line for whether the U.S.-China buffer mechanism can be maintained, assuming a restart before that; Goldman Sachs sets mid-June as the boundary, stating that if the blockade continues until then, it will trigger a pricing logic that "may surpass the peak of 2008"; Citibank sets the end of May as the deadline for the negotiation timetable, warning that if an agreement is not reached by then, upward risks will further escalate; JP Morgan's early speculation takes mid-May as a turning point, which has partly been realized; and Goldman Sachs' investor survey shows that more than 50% of respondents expect shipping disruptions to continue until the end of June. Behind this "June window" lies a tightly woven chain of underlying logic: once the U.S.-China buffer systems reach their limits, the global market will lose the last two buffers, and prices will have to "do what they have successfully avoided so far" - skyrocket. From the assessments of the six major firms, a clear consensus on pricing is emerging from Wall Street's precise deductions: if the Hormuz Strait reopens around June in the baseline scenario, the average price of Brent will moderately fall to the $85-100 range throughout the year; but if the "June window" is easily crossed, oil prices will inexorably rise to the vast range of $130-150, and even hit the financial crisis-era peak of $200. Citibank's warning about the "truth of tail risks" is now crystal clear - this tail is not a 1% probability, but is rapidly approaching the center of the probability distribution chart.