Global Cellular IoT Growth Slows Sharply as China Market Weakens

Global cellular IoT connections reached 4.7 billion in 2025, up 13% year‑on‑year, marking the lowest growth rate in five years. IoT Analytics noted that this slowdown reflects a shift from rapid expansion to the challenge of sustaining deeper value creation. The decline was driven primarily by China, where growth fell to 8.7%, with connections reaching 2.888 billion. As China has long been the global growth engine, its slowdown directly pulled down worldwide growth. Between 2021 and 2023, China’s rapid expansion pushed global growth above 20%, but when China’s pace fell sharply in 2024, global growth followed suit.

Cellular IoT accounted for 22% of total IoT connections in 2025, with 4.7 billion out of 21.1 billion. IoT Analytics projects connections will reach 5.4 billion in 2026 and grow at a 14.3% CAGR to 9.2 billion by 2030, though sustaining this pace depends heavily on China’s trajectory.

Technology shipments in 2025 showed NB‑IoT, LTE Cat 1 bis, and 4G leading with 33.5%, 21.4%, and 18.6% shares. NB‑IoT’s top ranking surprised the industry, boosted by Spain’s automotive emergency warning lights, which alone added nearly 15 million terminals. Yet revenue was dominated by high‑bandwidth technologies, with 5G, 4G, and LTE Cat 1 bis leading.

Global operators earned USD 20.8 billion from cellular IoT in 2025, with the top five taking over 60%. China Mobile led in connections and revenue share at 17%, while AT&T, Verizon, and Vodafone ranked high due to stronger ARPU. Module makers were led by Quectel with 34% revenue share, followed by Fibocom at 14%, with China Mobile, Meig, and Telit Cinterion at 10%, 7%, and 5%. Chipmakers were even more concentrated: the top five captured 97% of revenue, with Qualcomm dominating at 73%, followed by Unisoc at 10% and ASR at 7%.

Three clear trends have defined the past five years. First, growth drivers shifted from LPWAN to diversified technologies. NB‑IoT, once expected to lead, lost momentum by 2023, with LTE Cat 1 bis rising rapidly as a cost‑effective mid‑rate solution and 5G becoming the main revenue engine by 2025. Second, connections are highly concentrated but monetization lags. ARPU has declined, with China Mobile holding 44% of connections but only 17% of revenue, while AT&T achieved 12% of revenue with just 4% of connections. The challenge is to extract value beyond connectivity, leveraging AI and data services to make AIoT’s value explicit. Third, geopolitics is reshaping the market. Chinese module makers have consolidated dominance, but since 2023, countries including the U.S., UK, and India have imposed reviews or restrictions citing security risks. On April 30, 2026, the U.S. FCC unanimously passed a proposal banning Chinese labs from testing and certifying devices for the U.S. market, a move that will further affect Chinese cellular IoT products abroad.

Looking ahead, the cellular IoT market is expected to continue growing, but technology progress and geopolitical pressures will increasingly shape its trajectory, forcing new adjustments in market structure.