Goldman Sachs survey: Interruption or continuation of the Strait of Hormuz may extend to the second half of the year, market prefers to trade "short oil"

Goldman Sachs' latest survey shows that an increasing number of Wall Street investors believe that the disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz may continue until the second half of this year, reflecting the market gradually accepting the expectation of a prolonged impact on global energy supply. The Marquee MarketView survey conducted by Goldman Sachs with 837 institutional clients shows that most respondents expect the interruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to continue beyond the end of June, with approximately 43% of respondents believing that the shipping may not return to normal until July. At the same time, about one-third of respondents expect Brent crude oil prices to remain within the range of $80 to $90 per barrel by the end of this year. The core concern in the market is that peace talks between the US and Iran remain deadlocked, forcing investors to reassess the potential consequences of a long-term blockage in the Strait of Hormuz. As one of the world's most critical energy transportation routes, the Strait of Hormuz accounts for about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas transportation. Since the beginning of the war at the end of February, the waterway has effectively been in a semi-closed state. The supply disruption has posed an unprecedented impact on the global energy market. Several major oil traders have warned that even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens in the future, the impact of the Iran war on the global energy supply chain could still last for several months. Currently, the Strait of Hormuz is facing a "double blockade," with Iran continuing to obstruct the passage of ships, and the US restricting the activities of ships entering and leaving Iranian ports. The Goldman Sachs survey also shows that if the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation in the future, the most preferred trading strategy in the market would be to "short crude oil," followed by going long on European and emerging market stocks. However, even though there are expectations in the market for a easing of geopolitical tensions, there continues to be significant demand in the options market for downside protection, indicating that traders are still hedging against the risk of a rapid decline in oil prices if the US-Iran situation suddenly improves.