A-share market review: A-share differentiation and consolidation under double pressure! Hard technology sector collectively cooled down, is the rebound over?

On May 8th, the three major stock indexes in A-share markets showed weak fluctuations throughout the day and collectively closed lower. The yellow-white line differentiation was apparent, with small and medium-cap stocks showing stronger performance. By the close of the market, the Shanghai Composite Index was flat, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.50%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.96%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 3.05 trillion yuan, breaking 3 trillion for three consecutive trading days, a decrease of 95.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day. According to publicly available market information, it was found that the market is currently facing dual pressures of "external black swan events" and "internal technical adjustment demands." Firstly, on May 8th local time, tensions in the Middle East escalated again. According to reports from CCTV news, the Iranian side stated that three US destroyers near the Strait of Hormuz were hit by the Iranian navy, leading to an exchange of fire. Some analysts pointed out that the dominant narrative in the market has quickly shifted from optimistic expectations about artificial intelligence to concerns about tensions in the Middle East. As a result, European and American stock markets fell overnight, and this pessimistic sentiment was directly transmitted to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks at the opening. Secondly, after consecutive strong gains on May 6th and 7th, major technical indicators have entered overbought territory. Additionally, sectors like semiconductors, computing power, and CPO, which had led the previous rally, saw significant short-term gains and accumulated substantial profits. This led to a shift from high-end hardware to low-end sectors like AI applications and gaming. After experiencing significant market volatility, Goldman Sachs has provided a clear trading direction in its latest Asian stock strategy report: heavily overweight China, with A-shares showing significantly better investment value than H-shares. Goldman Sachs stated that investors' optimal strategy is to go long on A-shares, focusing on AI hardware, beneficiaries of the 14th Five-Year Plan, and energy winners with heavy assets and low depreciation (HALO). In addition, EB SECURITIES also stated that although tensions in the Middle East continue to persist, market sentiment towards marginal changes in the Middle East situation has gradually dulled after previous adjustments. The short-term disturbances caused by risk aversion sentiment are weakening, and as the earnings season concludes, the uncertainty brought by earnings disclosures will decrease. The A-share market may continue the pattern of volatile upward movement. Structurally, it is suggested to focus on sectors with improving fundamentals, including hard technology, export chains, and resources. In terms of market performance, indexes saw benign adjustments after consecutive gains, with most thematic concepts moving upwards. Concepts like satellite internet, maritime rocket recovery, and commercial space all saw strong performances, with multiple stocks hitting their daily limit up. On the other hand, sectors like central processing units, semiconductors, and lithium battery concepts saw corrections. Overall, sectors related to banking, brokerage, electricity, coal, and minor metals showed weaker performance. Popular sectors: 1. Strong performance in the AI application end concept, with China National Software & Service hitting limit up. 2. Strong performance in the humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation concept, with multiple stocks hitting their daily limit up. 3. Explosion in the commercial space concept, with multiple stocks hitting daily limit up. 4. Shaking adjustment in the computing power chip concept, with multiple stocks falling by more than 5%. Institutional views: EB SECURITIES: Market's sensitivity to changes in the Middle East situation has gradually diminished. EB SECURITIES believes that although tensions in the Middle East continue, the market's sensitivity to changes in the situation has gradually diminished after previous adjustments. The short-term disturbances caused by risk aversion sentiment are weakening, and as the earnings season concludes, the uncertainty brought by earnings disclosures will decrease. "The A-share market may continue the pattern of volatile upward movement." Structurally, it is suggested to focus on sectors with improving fundamentals, including hard technology, export chains, and resources. China Securities Co., Ltd.: Lithium battery storage sector shows clear upward signals. China Securities Co., Ltd. pointed out that the power equipment and new energy industries are transitioning from deflation to inflation cycles. The industry as a whole is showing growth, with sectors like the photovoltaic industry achieving the first year-on-year revenue growth in seven quarters. This is due to new drivers of growth in energy storage needs, which are reversing the supply-demand situation affected by policies. Galaxy Securities: Predicting a significant increase in Token consumption, four major directions to accelerate the benefits. Galaxy Securities' research report predicts a significant increase in Token consumption as the demand for inference continues to rise, driving the industry chain to accelerate. This is primarily seen in four major directions. In the AIDC sector, the core of DRIVE lies in the iterative development of global large model technology and the explosive growth in Token calls, with AIDC transitioning into a central physical base supporting the AI era. In the telecommunications sector, operators are playing a key role in connecting dispersed computing power and breaking geographical barriers. In the fiber optic cable industry, the large-scale construction of AIDC brought by Token is upgrading fiber optics from regular connection consumables to the core base of computing power networks, leading to a high boom in demand and price. In the optical module sector, with GPU computing power exponentially increasing, data transfer rates have become the biggest bottleneck in determining cluster efficiency, leading to a development period where high-speed optical modules experience technical advances and explosive demand. This article is sourced from "Tencent Self-selected Stocks", edited by GMTEight: Chen Xiaoyi.