Standard & Poor's expects Hong Kong property prices to rise by 8% to 10% throughout 2026.

Standard & Poor's has published a report predicting that Hong Kong property prices will rise by 3% to 5% for the remainder of this year, driving full-year prices up by 8% to 10%, with prices expected to remain stable or rise by 3% next year. The report states that the number of first-hand residential transactions in Hong Kong increased to 20,540 last year and is expected to slightly increase this year, but with suppressed demand gradually being met, transactions are projected to decrease to 18,000 next year. The report suggests that the Hong Kong residential market may enter a period of moderate recovery in the next two years, with the supply-demand imbalance not as pronounced as in the past. Private residential supply will remain sufficient in the next 3 to 4 years, and subsidized housing supply is also increasing. The report mentions that some developers have previously responded to the market downturn by cutting investments and strengthening their balance sheets, but with demand picking up, it remains to be seen whether developers will boldly invest, potentially leading to intense market competition once again. The upcoming land auctions may test the financial discipline of developers. The report notes that land auction competition has intensified in recent months, with winning bids significantly higher than valuations. If developers bid too high, it could pose long-term risks, but on the other hand, if investor funds continue to flow in, it could drive property prices beyond expectations.