Cui Dongshu: In 2026, the replacement of old cars with new cars will shift to "proportional subsidies + upper limit". The average subsidy for passenger cars will decrease by 21%-30%.

Cui Dongshu wrote that from the perspective of industry practice and user benefits, the core of the vehicle renewal policy in 2025-2026 is "stability, optimization of structure, and efficiency improvement", taking into account both continuity and the trend of industrial green transformation and consumption upgrade. Overall, the differentiated effects of subsidy policies are significant, with a substantial reduction in subsidies for passenger cars and a strong intensity of subsidies for scrapping and renewal of old operating trucks, leading to an intensification of industry growth differentiation. I. Policy for scrapping and renewal of old operating trucks 1. Stability of user benefits in 2025-2026 Core benefits for truck operating users (logistics companies, independent drivers) will remain stable for two years, with policies remaining unchanged and continued dividends in 2026. - Subsidy standards remain unchanged: Fixed subsidies for different vehicle types, covering all diesel and gas models. - Scrapping of National III/National IV trucks: Strong subsidy scope, support for early scrapping and greater subsidies for scrapping relatively new vehicles. - Scrapping and renewal of National VI fuel trucks: Overall intensity remains stable. - Scrapping and renewal of new energy trucks: Policy clearly encourages upgrading to electric vehicles. - Purchase of new energy trucks only: Subsidies remain stable at 35,000 yuan. 2. Key changes for truck users from 2025 to 2026 Policy adjustments focus on subsidy implementation efficiency and transformation orientation, with greater support and alignment with the trend of commercial vehicles' electrification. - The central government will fully bear long-term subsidies for operating trucks. In 2025, central and local governments jointly bear the subsidies, with some places experiencing longer user application periods due to supporting pressures; in 2026, the central government will fully bear subsidies, canceling local support to reduce local financial pressures and safeguard user rights. - Reducing dependence on diesel and natural gas. New energy upgrading direction is clearer: In 2025, there is no clear priority for new energy, and all fuel vehicle users have flexible choices; in 2026, diesel and natural gas truck users are explicitly encouraged to prioritize upgrading to new energy vehicles, which have lower energy consumption and maintenance costs, and over 80% of large and medium-sized cities open road access to them, highlighting their advantages. II. Policy for replacing old vehicles with new ones for passenger cars (from the perspective of individual/family car buyers) 1. Core changes in subsidies for users from 2025 to 2026 The core change is the shift from fixed subsidies to "proportional subsidies + ceiling", resulting in a 21% and 30% decrease in average scrapping/replacement subsidies in 2026, but with improved funding efficiency, covering more users, and aligning with the trend of consumption upgrade. It is important to emphasize that the core timing for passenger car replacement remains unchanged, with the deadline for registration of existing passenger cars transferred by the user not later than January 8, 2025, which is a key prerequisite for users applying for replacement subsidies and should have been extended to January 8, 2026, but remains stable. 2. User benefits differentiation examples - For a new energy vehicle priced at 50,000 yuan: 20,000 yuan in 2025 6,000 yuan in 2026 (a 60% decrease); for a new energy vehicle priced at 200,000 yuan: 20,000 yuan in both years (stable). - For a fuel vehicle priced at 50,000 yuan: 15,000 yuan in 2025 4,000 yuan in 2026 (a 70% decrease); for a fuel vehicle priced at 180,000 yuan: 15,000 yuan in both years (stable). III. Comparison of policy changes for truck users and passenger car users IV. Comprehensive evaluation of market growth 1. Truck users: The core of the policy is "stability", with subsidies and processes unchanged, the central government fully guaranteeing subsidies, faster payment, and a recommendation to prioritize new energy for short-distance scenarios. It is expected that scrapping and renewal in 2026 will have a good boost effect. 2. Passenger car users: The subsidy model is optimized, with slight decreases in benefits for low-priced vehicles, stable benefits for high-priced vehicles, and a stronger orientation towards new energy. It is important to note that the deadline for registration of existing cars for passenger car replacement remains January 8, 2025, and users must verify this date in advance. Thresholds for low-priced users have been raised, while high-priced and new energy users can confidently choose their options. 3. Differentiation between domestic demand for passenger cars and commercial vehicles: With increasing pressure on passenger car consumption, the domestic retail growth forecast for passenger cars for the entire year of 2026 has been downgraded to -7%. As commercial vehicle domestic growth remains stable in 2026, with passenger car export growth rates consistently rising to 35% in recent months. Under this balancing act between domestic and export growth, the overall automotive growth forecast for 2026 remains at 0% growth.