AI Leaders Zhipu and MiniMax Set to Reshape Hang Seng Tech and Stock Connect

The Hang Seng Tech Index has fallen more than 10% year‑to‑date, reflecting weak performance, yet the two strongest IPOs in Hong Kong this year are AI large‑model firms Zhipu and MiniMax, both ranking at the top of 2026 listings. Their absence from the index is due only to listing recency, but both are expected to be added on June 8, 2026, with a combined weight of 5%–7%. Analysts at Morgan Stanley calculated that had they been included from day one, the index’s decline would have narrowed from –12.6% to –7.6%.

The true test will come in July when lock‑ups expire. Zhipu’s cornerstone investors will see 5.83% of shares unlocked, while nearly half of MiniMax’s shares will be freed, multiplying free float and challenging scarcity premiums. Current index composition shows e‑commerce and autos/EVs together account for over half the weight, while ByteDance’s absence continues to weigh. Analysts noted that replacing Kingdee International and Kingsoft with Zhipu and MiniMax from January would have improved returns by five points, offsetting February’s ByteDance‑related pullback.

On June 8, Zhipu and MiniMax are expected to join the index, displacing smaller constituents. Inclusion will trigger passive inflows, with ETFs tracking the index totaling USD 25 billion, implying USD 1.25–1.75 billion directed to the two firms. Stock Connect provides another channel: Zhipu is expected to join simultaneously, while MiniMax, due to its WVR structure, must meet stricter criteria, making August 6 the earliest. This reflects HKEX’s tighter governance for dual‑class companies.

Historical patterns suggest southbound holdings rise to about 9% of free float within six months, often higher for small floats. Scenarios indicate MiniMax could attract HKD 184–434 billion and Zhipu HKD 186–439 billion, with combined inflows of HKD 370–880 billion. Such flows will support valuations and sentiment given the scarcity of comparable assets.

Unlocking remains the key stress test. Zhipu’s free float is only 2.67% and MiniMax’s 5.44%, with over 90% locked. July’s unlocks will multiply tradable shares, reversing supply‑demand dynamics, while January 2027 will release over 60% of Zhipu’s non‑controlling shares. Pricing will then shift from scarcity premiums to fundamentals such as revenue growth, loss reduction and commercialization. Current data show heavy R&D intensity: Zhipu’s H1 2025 revenue was RMB 191 million against RMB 1.594 billion R&D, while MiniMax’s nine‑month 2025 revenue was USD 53.44 million against USD 180 million R&D.

Hong Kong’s IPO market is being reshaped by AI. IPO fundraising in 2026 has reached HKD 139 billion, half of 2025’s total, with IT raising HKD 54 billion, 39% of the total, up from 14% the prior year. Semiconductors rose from 3% to 21%. Of 390 queued IPOs, IT accounts for 43%. Policy support includes lowered Chapter 18C thresholds, the TECH channel for AI listings, HKD 100 billion innovation funds and HKD 10 billion for an AI research institute, with AI designated a core industry. Hong Kong has become the first global market to host IPOs of major large‑model firms, and the pipeline continues to expand.