The US naval blockade tightens Iran's economic noose! Riyal drops to historic new low, worries reignite as crude oil reaches four-year high.

The Iranian currency recently fell to a historic low, indicating that the US maritime blockade is putting pressure on the country's economy. According to data from the website Bonbast.com, which tracks the black market exchange rate, on Wednesday the Iranian rial fell to nearly 1 US dollar to 180 million rials. In recent years, the rial has significantly depreciated, mainly due to Western sanctions. With US military blockades in Iranian ports making it difficult for Iran to continue exporting oil, the rial has devalued by about 12% this week. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bensett cited the weakening rial as evidence that US economic pressure actions aimed at forcing Iran to reach an agreement to limit its nuclear program are working. The US and Iran are currently in a stalemate of "no war, no talk." According to previous reports, the US has received a new negotiation proposal from Iran through Pakistan. However, there are indications that US President Trump and his national security team discussed the proposal and "Trump does not like the proposal." A US official stated that Trump is dissatisfied with Iran's negotiation proposal because it does not involve Iran's nuclear program. Mediators from Pakistan said that efforts to bridge the US-Iran divide have never stopped, but hopes for resuming peace efforts are diminishing. At the same time, a US official stated that Trump has instructed aides to prepare for a long-term blockade against Iran, aiming to cut off the Iranian regime's sources of funds in a high-risk manner to force Iran to make concessions on its long-standing nuclear issue. The official stated that in recent meetings, Trump decided to continue exerting pressure on the Iranian economy and oil exports by blocking ships from entering and leaving Iranian ports. He believes that maintaining the blockade carries lower risks compared to resuming bombings or directly withdrawing from conflicts. Iran hopes to lift the maritime blockade as a condition for further negotiations or reopening the Strait of Hormuz. According to the latest reports, the US military will report the latest plan for striking Iran to Trump on April 30th Eastern Time. The prepared plan by US Central Command is to launch a "rapid and powerful" strike against Iran, with potential targets likely including Iran's infrastructure. The US Central Command has submitted an application to deploy "Dark Eagle" hypersonic missiles to the Middle East region. If approved, this would be the first time the US has deployed hypersonic missiles in combat, possibly for targeting ballistic missile launch sites in Iran. Analysts point out that despite the temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran since April 9th, US actions indicate preparations for potential military strikes. Both the US and Iran are using the ceasefire period to reorganize their military forces, and future conflicts may become more intense. Iranian Navy Commander Shahram Irani stated on April 29th that Iran will showcase a "terrifying weapon" to enemies. Irani mentioned that in the near future, enemies will witness weapons that will "cause fear in them," and these weapons will be used at sea. Due to reports of the US military reporting potential actions against Iran to Trump, along with continued US maritime blockades on Iranian exports, market concerns about a reignition of conflict in the Middle East have intensified. Brent crude oil futures for June briefly touched $126 per barrel on Thursday, hitting a four-year high. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to energy infrastructure in the Middle East due to the war have led to a historic global oil supply interruption. Goldman Sachs estimates that only 4% of oil exports passing through the critical chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz are at normal levels, as US-Iran negotiations stall and US maritime blockades further tighten supply. Analysts suggest that if the blockade continues, restrictions on Iranian exports and limited storage capacity may exacerbate the supply interruption. They added that any potential increase in production from the UAE following its exit from OPEC is more likely to gradually materialize in the medium term, rather than counteracting the current supply constraints. Bill Perkins, Chief Investment Officer at Skylar Capital Management, stated that as the US-Iran conflict continues, the oil market is being driven by physical supply interruptions, geopolitics, and investor sentiment. He stated, "An agreement is still far from reach, and it may take some hostile actions or more time to reopen the Strait of Hormuz." While strategic reserves and in-transit oil have partially buffered oil prices, the tension in the refined products market is much more severe, reflected in a significant spike in diesel prices, along with ongoing logistics bottlenecks even if a ceasefire agreement is reached. Goldman Sachs has noted that downside risks to demand are emerging, with global oil consumption in April expected to be around 360,000 barrels per day lower than in February, with weak demand focused mainly on aviation fuel and petrochemical feedstocks. Looking ahead, Perkins suggested that if supply interruptions persist, oil prices could surge to $140 to $150 per barrel, although excessively high oil prices will eventually dampen demand.