HK Stock Market Move | Lithium mining concept rises in trading, lithium carbonate market resonates with supply and demand, UBS significantly raises lithium price forecast.

The concept of lithium ore has risen in midday trading, with Tianqi Lithium Corporation (09696) up 6.72% at HK$67.5; as of the time of publication, Ganfeng Lithium Group (01772) is up 3.04% at HK$86.5. On the news front, recently, the price of lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has risen above 180,000 yuan. As of the time of publication, the main lithium carbonate 2609 contract has risen by over 3%, reaching 185,500 yuan/ton. Data shows that in the first quarter of 2026, China's energy storage lithium battery shipments reached 215GWh, a year-on-year increase of 139%; orders from top companies have been scheduled for production until the end of 2026 to the second quarter of 2027. In addition, there are expectations of tight supply on the supply side. The previous week, the world's largest hard rock lithium mine, Greenbush, revised down its production guidance, while concerns about lithium ore supply were further heightened by export restrictions on lithium concentrate from Zimbabwe and shipping disruptions in Australia. It is worth noting that UBS has significantly raised its lithium price forecast, stating that this cycle is completely different from the past. UBS Securities analyst Lachlan Shaw said that this cycle has three clues on the demand side - stronger energy storage, improved economic viability of electric vehicles, and accelerated penetration of electric trucks in China, while the supply side will respond but not as quickly. On the pricing table, the short-term forecast for 6% Li2O spodumene concentrate has been raised by 23%, with a long-term price increase of 17% to $1400/ton; mid-term forecasts for battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide have been raised by 17%-47%, but long-term prices remain unchanged.