Financial Report Preview | The high performance growth of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY.US) in the first quarter report is unquestionable. The real test lies in the initial examination at Foundayo and the technology moat in the "post-GLP-1 era."

American pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly (LLY.US) will release its first quarter 2026 financial report before the US stock market opens on April 30th. Despite a more than 19% pullback in the stock price since the beginning of the year, Wall Street analysts generally believe that its strong position in the weight loss drug market remains solid, with the newly launched oral weight loss drug Foundayo and emerging pipeline represented by gene editing therapy becoming key factors in determining its future valuation. Performance expectations are strong, but the market is focusing on future catalysts The market generally expects Eli Lilly to deliver a significant increase in revenue for the first quarter. Compiled data shows that Eli Lilly's adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter are estimated at $6.85, with revenue expected to increase sharply by 40.3% year-on-year to $17.86 billion. In the past three months, market revenue expectations have been raised 8 times and lowered only once, indicating confidence in its revenue prospects. Currently, Eli Lilly's weight loss business remains strong. With Zepbound (one of the most effective and best-selling weight loss drugs on the market) and Foundayo (one of the first oral GLP-1 drugs), analysts predict that Eli Lilly's total sales of GLP-1 products will grow at an average rate of 14% per year to about $45 billion by 2031. Morningstar analyst Karen Andersen said that Eli Lilly's growth in 2026 depends largely on the continued growth of Mounjaro and Zepbound, two drugs for diabetes and obesity. Overall, the company's 2026 revenue growth guidance median is 25%. However, the quarterly report itself may not be the biggest focus. Analysts are more concerned about the subsequent conference call by management. Foundayo's debut draws attention, but may not be the sole focus Since Eli Lilly's new oral weight loss drug Foundayo was approved on April 1st and began shipping on April 6th, its impact will not be reflected in the first quarter report. Management's evaluation of its early prescription trends and market acceptance will be the first key factor in evaluating its prospects in the competitive landscape. Morningstar expects the drug to generate $1.7 billion in sales revenue this year and believes that its production advantage in small molecule drugs will lead to rapid growth in international markets. Regarding Foundayo, the market's concerns are centered on whether it can establish a foothold in the already competitive oral weight loss drug market. Seeking Alpha analyst Stephen Ayers pointed out that if Eli Lilly can reaffirm its overall revenue guidance for 2026, it may be a positive signal that Foundayo is on the right track; however, if the guidance range narrows, it may suggest pricing pressure or lower-than-expected market acceptance of Foundayo. However, some opinions suggest that investors may be too focused on the close combat in the GLP-1 track and overlook the next change that Eli Lilly is brewing. Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger said that the new drug Eli Lilly is developing, eloralintide, a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) analogue, may become a "game changer" in breaking the existing competitive stalemate. It is understood that the drug provides a new option for patients who are intolerant or have reduced response to existing GLP-1 drugs. Early data shows that using it in combination with tirzepatide (the active ingredient of Mounjaro and Zepbound) may achieve better weight loss results and tolerability. Risinger expects this combination therapy to advance to Phase III clinical trials in the second half of this year, which could create new barriers that competitors may find difficult to overcome for Eli Lilly. "Second growth curve" beyond weight loss drugs It is worth noting that Eli Lilly is leveraging the generous cash flow generated by its weight loss drugs to actively position itself for the long-term future. Earlier this month, the company announced the acquisition of gene therapy company Kelonia Therapeutics for up to $7 billion, marking another move in the field of in vivo CAR-T cell therapy since 2024. This technology aims to provide a more affordable, convenient, and potentially more effective way to treat cancer and even autoimmune diseases. The company has not generated revenue, but its therapy for multiple myeloma has entered Phase I clinical trials. Analysts have responded positively to this move, believing that it will enrich its oncology pipeline, achieve long-term growth diversification, and reduce dependence on the GLP-1 business. Evan Siegerman, an analyst at BMO, said, "We view this potential deal positively as it adds a complementary in vivo therapeutic pathway, which could broaden Eli Lilly's presence in the oncology field." UBS Group AG analyst Michael Yee added that this acquisition will help Eli Lilly "diversify its pipeline and lay the foundation for long-term growth beyond the GLP-1 product line." According to statistics, global spending on cancer treatment reached $256 billion in 2025 and is expected to approach $700 billion by 2034. For Eli Lilly, with annual revenue expectations exceeding $80 billion, taking a share of this huge cancer market will bring significant additional growth to the company. Price pressure and incremental opportunities coexist However, Eli Lilly's development still faces multiple uncertainties. The company's core growth engines - Mounjaro and Zepbound - are facing price challenges. Morningstar analysts point out that while sales growth is strong, prices may continue to erode in the U.S. private insurance and cash paying markets this year. In addition, pricing pressures in the Chinese market and the United States' "Most Favored Nation" pricing terms may also affect international sales of other key drugs. However, changes in the policy environment also bring benefits to Eli Lilly. A pilot program launched by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services in the United States is expected to significantly expand the coverage of Zepbound and Foundayo among Medicare beneficiaries from July, capping the monthly out-of-pocket costs for GLP-1 drugs at $50. Morgan Stanley sees this as a "milestone opening" for the U.S. Medicare weight loss drug channel, and Mizuho analysts believe that this may bring over 20% upside to the stock price.