Huachuang Securities: The strong start of life insurance sets the tone for the whole year, and the value of new business is still expected to grow at a double-digit rate.

Huachuang Securities released a research report stating that the bright performance of life insurance sets the tone for the first quarter and the whole year, with an expected double-digit growth in new business. However, from the perspective of pace, it is predicted that the policy interest rate will not be adjusted this year, and the growth rate is expected to converge month-on-month under the high base effect from April to August, but it will ease or increase from September to December. In terms of value rate, the decline in the policy interest rate in the first half of the year will offset the increase in the proportion of dividend insurance, putting pressure on the value rate. In the second half of the year, especially from September, the negative impact of the increase in the proportion of dividend insurance on the value rate is expected to be exposed. Overall, new business value is still expected to achieve double-digit growth. For property insurance, as the penetration rate of new energy vehicles increases into the middle to late stages, the growth rate of auto insurance slows down; some non-auto insurance types may be under pressure in the short term or affected by the integration of insurance and banking, but in the long term, the industry is expected to improve the profitability of non-auto insurance. The main points of Huachuang Securities are as follows: Industry overview: Cumulative premium growth rate in January-March 2026 converges, mainly influenced by life insurance In January-March 2026, the insurance industry achieved original premium income of 2.31 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, with a month-on-month growth rate of -2.1 points. Among them, the total premium of life insurance (including health insurance and accident insurance of property insurance companies) was 1.9289 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%; the premium of property insurance was 381.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%. The growth rate of life insurance premiums continued to converge, mainly influenced by life insurance. In January-March 2026, life insurance premiums were 1.5035 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%; health insurance premiums were 399 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%; accident insurance premiums were 26.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, with the growth rate turning positive. In terms of claims, the industry's claims expenditure in January-March 2026 was 889.3 billion yuan, accounting for 38% of the original premium income, a decrease of 3 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the claims ratio of life insurance was 35%, down 4% month-on-month, and property insurance was 58%, down 1% month-on-month. Life insurance companies: Life insurance growth rate falls back, short-term sales of dividend insurance may be affected by fluctuations in equity markets In January-March 2026, life insurance companies achieved original premium income of 1.7803 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%. Among them, life insurance increased by 8.7% year-on-year, health insurance by 0.8% year-on-year, and accident insurance by 10.3% year-on-year. The growth rate of life insurance fell back slightly, possibly partly affected by fluctuations in the equity market, and the selling point of dividend insurance "fixed income +" weakened marginally. In January-March 2026, the cumulative new premiums of policyholder investment funds dominated by universal insurance increased by 14.5% year-on-year, and the independent accounts of investment-linked insurance increased by 11.8% year-on-year, reflecting a marginal downward trend in customer risk appetite. Considering the premium of investment accounts for universal and investment-linked insurance, life insurance companies achieved premium income of 2.08 trillion yuan in January-March 2026, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%. Property insurance companies: The decline in auto insurance premiums converges month-on-month, with health insurance contributing to the main growth In January-March 2026, property insurance companies achieved original premium income of 530.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with a month-on-month growth rate of -0.6 points. Among them, auto insurance accounted for 42%, health insurance 25%, agricultural insurance 8%, liability insurance 9%, and accident insurance 3%. The proportion of auto insurance decreased month-on-month, while agricultural insurance and liability insurance increased. The cumulative premium of auto insurance was 222.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, with the decline converging month-on-month but still under pressure, expected to be influenced by automobile sales volumes, which decreased by 0.5% year-on-year in March. Non-auto insurance cumulative premiums increased by 5.3% year-on-year, mainly driven by health insurance. The cumulative premium growth rates of specific types of insurance were as follows: health insurance +16.3%, liability insurance +7.1%, accident insurance +8.8%, and agricultural insurance -2.6%. Asset changes: May be affected by fluctuations in equity markets, net assets decrease month-on-month As of the end of March 2026, the total assets of the insurance industry reached 42.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.8% compared to the end of the previous year. Among them, life insurance companies had 37.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.6% compared to the end of the previous year; property insurance companies had 3.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.9% from the end of the previous year; reinsurance companies had 859.1 billion yuan, an increase of 0.2% from the end of the previous year; and insurance asset management companies had 152.4 billion yuan, an increase of 4.7% from the end of the previous year. As of the end of March 2026, the net assets of the insurance industry reached 3.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.2% compared to the end of the previous year, with a decrease of 0.2 trillion yuan compared to the previous month. Risk alerts: Changes in policies, worsening natural disasters, continuous decline in long-term interest rates, and market fluctuations.