CITIC SEC: Southeast Asia is becoming an important regional market for the global expansion of Chinese brands. Continuously recommending leading companies to go abroad.

CITIC SEC released a research report stating that going global is a necessary option for Chinese companies right now, and the Southeast Asian market is often seen as the first destination for global expansion. Based on desk research and on-site visits, the firm believes that on one hand, there are clear differences and divisions among the various countries in the ASEAN market; on the other hand, the maturity, prosperity, and growth elasticity of the mobile phone, automobile, and motorcycle sectors show a progressively advancing structural characteristics: mobile phones have entered the stage of branded retail, automobiles are moving towards a systematized operation supported by channel construction, capacity layout, and policy adaptation, and motorcycles have a lower penetration rate and stronger marginal elasticity. Overall, Southeast Asia is becoming an important regional market for Chinese brands to globally expand, with both validation value and growth space, and the firm continues to recommend industry-leading companies to go global. Key viewpoints from CITIC SEC: The structure of the Southeast Asian market is significantly differentiated, with "brand validation" and "scale penetration" coexisting. The ASEAN region is not a homogeneous market: Thailand, as a mature consumer market, has high consumption ability and a complete retail system, making it more suitable for brand display and channel efficiency verification; Indonesia, on the other hand, relies on population dividends, young consumer groups, and a transportation structure dominated by motorcycles, forming a scale-based market core around mass demand, making it more suitable for localized manufacturing, price coverage, and channel sinking. The differences in demand structure and growth path between the two markets together form a layered pattern of "high-end validation and scale expansion" for Chinese brands in Southeast Asia. Different tracks present differentiated paths for global expansion, essentially reflecting the adaptation of product capabilities and market structures. The mobile phone track is the most mature, with Chinese brands already leading the upgrade from "cost-effectiveness output" to "brand + eco-output", promoting high-end and experiential retail in Thailand and meeting mass demand in Indonesia; the automotive track competition has entered the systematized management stage, with Chinese automakers gradually transitioning from complete vehicle exports to a regional operating model focusing on channel construction, localized production capacity, and policy coordination; motorcycles have a large demand base and growth potential, but are still in the early stages of penetration, with their development pace depending on factors such as cost conditions, infrastructure, and policy environment. Overall, although each track has a different pace, they all point towards the upgrade path from Chinese manufacturing to Chinese brands. The upward trend in oil prices is driving demand restructuring and accelerating the electrification of transportation in Southeast Asia. Since March 2026, international oil prices have rapidly risen, causing significant impacts on energy net importing countries like Thailand and Indonesia. In Thailand, retail oil prices have risen, terminal supply disruptions, and decreased refueling convenience, significantly amplifying the cost advantages of electric vehicles; due to long-term fuel subsidy systems, Indonesia's evolution is more reflected in increased fiscal pressure, local supply tension, and cost transmission to the public. In this context, the advantages of traditional fuel-powered transportation in terms of convenience and cost stability are being weakened, while the previous shortcomings of electric vehicles are relatively diminished, and the logic of new energy substitution is gradually transitioning from static economic advantages to real demand-driven factors. Risk factors: The risk of international oil price fluctuations weakening the economic advantages of electrification, risks related to changes in subsidy policies, tariff arrangements, and localization requirements in Southeast Asian countries, risks of infrastructure development for charging and after-sales service falling short of expectations, risks of slower-than-expected demand recovery, risks of increased market competition leading to price declines, and risks of significant exchange rate fluctuations significantly impacting corporate profits.