India and China Race for Russian Oil as Iran War Disrupts Global Energy Flows

The ongoing war involving Iran has triggered a new energy rivalry between India and China as both countries scramble to secure alternative oil supplies amid major disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict has severely constrained flows through one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes, forcing Asia’s largest oil importers to compete aggressively for available crude cargoes. 

Russian oil has emerged as the most important fallback option for both countries. Analysts say the competition for Russian crude has intensified sharply in recent months as supply from the Middle East becomes increasingly uncertain. While sanctions and geopolitical tensions previously complicated purchases of Russian energy, recent temporary waivers and shifting market dynamics have made Russian crude even more strategically valuable. 

The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has had a dramatic impact on imports. Chinese crude shipments through the route have reportedly collapsed from more than 4 million barrels per day before the war to just a fraction of that level. India has experienced a similarly severe drop in supply flows. As a result, both countries have been forced to rapidly diversify supply chains and secure replacement cargoes wherever possible. 

Among the two, India appears to be more vulnerable to prolonged disruptions. Energy analysts note that the country has relatively limited strategic reserves and remains heavily dependent on imported oil from the Gulf region. Unlike some countries that have allowed higher fuel prices to reduce demand, India has kept domestic fuel prices relatively stable, sustaining strong consumption levels even as supply pressures rise. 

China, meanwhile, is considered to be in a stronger position due to its large oil stockpiles and broader energy reserves. Analysts estimate that China has enough reserves to cover several months of demand, giving Beijing greater flexibility during supply shocks. However, the country still requires massive energy imports to support its export-driven manufacturing economy and petrochemical industries. 

The competition for Russian oil has become particularly visible in recent months. India significantly increased its purchases of Russian crude after disruptions from the Iran conflict intensified, while China also expanded imports to offset reduced access to Iranian supplies. Data suggests that both countries are now securing similar volumes of Russian oil, creating direct competition in the market. 

At the same time, Saudi Arabia remains another important supplier, though much of its output is increasingly directed toward China due to long-term refinery investments and strategic partnerships. This dynamic has further complicated India’s efforts to diversify away from Russian crude. 

Energy experts warn that if tensions in the Middle East continue and the Strait of Hormuz remains unstable, supply competition across Asia could intensify further. In such a scenario, availability of oil—not just price—may become the dominant concern for importing nations.

The crisis is increasingly revealing how geopolitical conflicts can rapidly reshape global energy markets. For both India and China, securing stable oil supplies has now become not only an economic issue, but also a critical strategic priority in an increasingly volatile global environment.