Preview of US Stock Market | Three major stock index futures rise together, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) to release financial report after market close.

1. On April 22nd (Wednesday) before the US stock market, the futures of the three major US stock indexes rose together, with Dow Jones futures up 0.60%, S&P 500 index futures up 0.60%, and Nasdaq 100 index futures up 0.77%. 2. As of the time of writing, the Germany DAX index fell by 0.21%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell by 0.09%, the France CAC40 index fell by 0.38%, and the Europe Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.10%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil rose by 1.82% to $91.30 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose by 1.77% to $100.22 per barrel. Market News - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps detained two illegal ships. On the local time of the 22nd, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy Command issued a statement stating that they had detained two illegal ships and transferred them to Iranian coastal waters. The statement pointed out that the two ships named "MSCFrancesca" and "Epaminodes" endangered maritime safety by tampering with their navigation systems without obtaining the necessary permits. They have been detained by the Revolutionary Guards Navy and transferred to the Iranian coast. The statement emphasized that disrupting the order and security of the Strait of Hormuz is Iran's "red line". According to earlier reports from Iran, a total of three ships were intercepted by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard in the Persian Gulf and surrounding waters on the 22nd. - Washington's high-stakes bet: using AI productivity to hedge against inflation, the Federal Reserve moves towards framework restructuring. More and more senior Wall Street macroeconomists believe that Kevin Warsh, the nominee for Federal Reserve Chairman, faces an almost impossible task - to curb inflation and appease the US President who nominated him, Donald Trump. Next Federal Reserve Chairman candidate Kevin Warsh believes that a key sign of the Federal Reserve's success in monetary policy is when no one is talking about inflation. What Kevin Warsh truly wants to do may not be a traditional "dove/hawk stance shift", but a restructuring of the Federal Reserve's operational framework: on one hand, shrinking the balance sheet, weakening the normalization of quantitative easing, and quasi-fiscal functions, and on the other hand, using interest rate tools more to support the significant improvement in US physical economy and productivity driven by the AI wave when conditions permit. - The high oil price storm is far from over! The aftermath of the Hormuz blockade is lingering, and energy stocks are entering an "overweight window". The world's largest oil traders have warned that even if any peace or ceasefire agreement is reached to restore the transportation of oil and gas resources through the Strait of Hormuz, the impact of this round of Middle East political war brought by the GEO Group Inc will continue in the following months. Overall oil production in the Middle East region has been significantly reduced due to the Iran war, and this time, the logic behind the production cut and the skyrocketing oil prices is not just "disruption in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz", but the triple overlay of "production cut + export hindered + infrastructure damaged by missile strikes"; these factors are also why senior Wall Street strategists have recently emphasized that in an environment where the global economy is already grappling with high financing costs and impacts from the GEO Group Inc, energy stocks are transitioning from cyclical trading to strategic overweight in portfolios. - Vanguard Group counter-cycles US bonds: Above 4.25% yield is the "golden pit", betting on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year. The Vanguard Group has stated that they are increasing their holdings of US Treasury bonds, using the opportunity of rising yields after the Middle East conflict to lock in rates, hedging potential risks of economic growth slowdown. The Vanguard Group reiterated its view that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates once this year, but the interest rate swap market has not fully reflected this expectation. As the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond has risen above the "fair value" range of 3.75% to 4.25%, the team has been increasing its holdings of long-term bonds. The benchmark rate (which affects factors such as corporate borrowing costs and mortgage terms) has risen more than 30 basis points since late February to around 4.3%, due to the Iran conflict pushing up oil prices and reigniting concerns about inflation. Stock News - Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) is about to release its earnings, and the market is more concerned about AI, Robotaxi, Siasun Robot&Automation, and SpaceX. Tesla, Inc. will have a rare "earnings feast" on Wednesday afternoon (Thursday morning Beijing time) where it could see a significant financial report that exceeds expectations by many years. However, the core issue that Wall Street is focusing on is whether investors will seek more substantial evidence to prove that Elon Musk's ambitions in artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, Robotaxi, and humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation can support the stock's high valuation, as the actual financial numbers may be overlooked by investors. Wall Street predicts that the adjusted profit in the first quarter will increase by 30% compared to the same period last year, with total revenue expected to grow by 15%, a strong turnaround from Tesla, Inc.'s fourth-quarter performance when adjusted profit fell by over 30% and revenue declined by about 3%. - Boeing Company (BA.US) engines roar with performance recovery! With a record backlog of orders, the "Artemis II" moon mission helps boost the company's narrative. The latest financial report from Boeing Company shows that its cash outflow was significantly lower than Wall Street expectations. The company delivered its largest number of aircraft in the first quarter since 2019, with its defense, military, and commercial aerospace and services business divisions related to NASA's moon mission showing stable growth. Boeing Company continues to achieve fundamental recovery by significantly increasing production volume. The commercial aircraft delivery volume during this period increased significantly by 10% to exceed analysts' average expectation of 143 aircraft, driving a 14% year-on-year increase in total revenue to around $22.2 billion in the first quarter. CEO Alberto Perlman highlighted advancements in actual production volume and delivery, including the launch of NASA's "Artemis II" moon mission, from rockets manufactured by Boeing Company. - Increased trading volume boosts Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. Class A (IBKR.US) Q1 net revenue rose by 17% year-on-year, with earnings per share of $0.60. Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. Class A's Q1 net revenue was $1.67 billion, up 17% year-on-year, slightly lower than the market's expectation of $1.68 billion. Net profit was $267 million, compared to $213 million in the same period last year; adjusted earnings per share were $0.60, in line with market expectations. Net interest income increased by 17% year-on-year to $904 million, mainly due to an increase in customer average margin loans and credit balances. Commission income grew by 19% to $613 million, driven by a 25% increase in trading volume for stocks, 20% for futures, and 16% for options. Other fees and services increased by 10% to $86 million. - AI wave drives explosive electricity demand, GE Vernova (GEV.US) raises annual performance guidance. Driven by strong demand for electricity equipment from data centers, GE Vernova has raised its annual revenue and adjusted core profit margin forecast. The financial report shows that GE Vernova's revenue in the first quarter reached $9.34 billion, a 16.3% year-on-year increase, above expectations; earnings per share were $17.44, higher than the expected $15.44. Adjusted core profit was $896 million, while analysts' expectations were $777.2 million. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), US electricity consumption set a new historical record for the second consecutive year in 2025, and is projected to further increase in 2026 and 2027. The company currently expects revenue for 2026 to be between $44.5 billion and $45.5 billion, higher than the previous forecast of $44 billion to $45 billion. - The "victim" of the Iran war in the US stock market emerges: United Airlines (UAL.US) significantly lowers full-year profit forecast. Despite United Airlines' strong first-quarter performance, the company stated that the surge in oil prices caused by the Iran war has put pressure on its profits, leading to a significant decrease in the full-year profit forecast for 2026. Due to the impact of high oil prices, the company has lowered its full-year earnings per share forecast to between $7 and $11 for the year, far below the $12 to $14 forecast released in January. United Airlines' financial report shows that fuel costs increased by $340 million year-on-year in the first quarter due to the Iran war driving up international oil prices. This factor is expected to continue to impact the company's profit margin. Following the outbreak of the Iran war, Wall Street analysts have adjusted their performance expectations for United Airlines, forecasting an adjusted full-year earnings per share of $9.58. - AT&T (T.US) reports first-quarter revenue and profit surpassing expectations, fusion strategy and fiber expansion showing results. Benefiting from growth in wireless and home internet service users, AT&T exceeded Wall Street expectations in both revenue and profit, demonstrating that its ongoing fiber network construction and multi-product integration strategy are gradually paying off in terms of performance. AT&T achieved revenue of $31.5 billion in the first quarter, a 2.9% year-on-year increase, slightly higher than the market's expectation of $31.25 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.57, an increase from $0.51 in the same period last year, and better than analysts' estimate of $0.55. In terms of user growth, AT&T added a net 294,000 postpaid cellphone subscribers during the quarter, surpassing analysts' expectations of 262,000. The postpaid phone churn rate was 0.89%. - New Oriental Education & Technology Group, Inc. Sponsored ADR (EDU.US) reports a 45.3% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in the third quarter to $126.8 million. New Oriental Education & Technology Group, Inc. Sponsored ADR's third-quarter net revenue increased by 19.8% year-on-year to $1.4173 billion. Operating profit increased by 44.8% to $180.3 million in the third quarter. Net profit attributable to shareholders of New Oriental Education & Technology Group, Inc. Sponsored ADR increased by 45.3% to $126.8 million. Net profit attributable to shareholders of New Oriental Education & Technology Group, Inc. Sponsored ADR was $413 million, an increase of 13.3%. New Oriental Education & Technology Group, Inc. Sponsored ADR expects fourth-quarter net revenue for the 2026 fiscal year to be between $1.4296 billion and $1.4669 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate between 15% and 18%. Boosted by vigorous growth across its business lines, New Oriental Education & Technology Group, Inc. Sponsored ADR raised its full-year net revenue forecast for 2026 to between $55.614 billion and $55.987 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate between 13% and 14%. - Meta (META.US) will track mouse movements and keystrokes on employee computers for AI model training. Meta is installing new tracking software on the computers of its US employees to capture mouse movements, clicks, and keyboard inputs for training its artificial intelligence models. An internal memo states that this is part of Meta's widespread initiative to build AI agents that can autonomously perform work tasks. According to the memo, the tool, called the "Model Capability Program," will run on work-related applications and websites and periodically capture content from employee screens. The memo was released by an AI research scientist on Tuesday in Meta's internal Model Building team "Meta Super Intelligence Lab" channel. This move aims to improve Meta's AI models in simulating human-computer interactions such as selecting drop-down menus and keyboard shortcuts. Important Economic Data and Events Preview - 22:30 Beijing time: US EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending April 17th. Earnings Previews Morning on Thursday: Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US), Lam Research Group (LRCX.US), IBM (IBM.US), Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN.US), ServiceNow (NOW.US) Before the market opens on Thursday: STMicroelectronics NV ADR RegS (STM.US), Nokia Oyj Sponsored ADR (NOK.US), American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL.US), Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV.US), TAL Education Group Sponsored ADR Class A (TAL.US), American Express Company (AXP.US), Union The Pacific (UNP.US), Blackstone (BX.US)