Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.: Micron Technology, Inc. (MU.US) contributes to over half of the profits of the S&P 500, leading to a reassessment of expectations driven by AI and energy.

Against the backdrop of the conflict between the United States and Iran causing changes in the global industrial and energy landscape, there has been a significant divergence in profit expectations for US stocks. Research by Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. shows that Micron Technology, Inc. (MU.US) has contributed to about 51% of the upward revision of S&P 500 profit expectations, becoming the core driving force of this round of profit expectation increases. Data shows that market consensus expects Micron's EPS to grow by as much as 605% by 2026, with its profit expectations increasing by 93% since February 27, nearly doubling in just a few weeks. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. points out that this change is mainly due to the explosion of AI infrastructure demand and increased defense technology spending, driving rapid semiconductor demand growth, which analysts quickly reflected in their models. Prior to the release of the financial report, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. had already listed Micron as a key target for optimism, with its EPS forecast for 2026 about 19% higher than market consensus. Apart from Micron, another important contributor in the information technology sector is Broadcom Inc. (AVGO.US). Outside of this, the main forces driving the upward revision of S&P 500 profit expectations come mainly from the energy sector, reflecting the reshaping of profit expectations for the oil and gas industry due to the war. Specifically, Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM.US) and Chevron Corporation (CVX.US) together contributed about 24% of the index's profit increase, with the profit expectations for the two companies increasing by 44% and 67% respectively since February 27. In addition, Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY.US) has seen a significant increase in profit expectations by 251%, performing most prominently among energy stocks, but due to its smaller weight, it only contributes about 2% to the index increase. ConocoPhillips (COP.US), Valero Energy Corporation (VLO.US), and EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG.US) also performed well, each contributing about 3% to 5% of profit revisions. Analysts point out that this round of profit expectation increases shows clear structural characteristics: on one hand, the surge in AI-driven semiconductor demand is driving the upward trend of leading technology companies; on the other hand, the increase in energy prices is significantly improving the profit prospects of oil and gas companies.