The sudden exchange of fire in the Strait of Hormuz between the United States and Iran caused Brent crude oil to jump nearly 8%, escalating the global energy crisis once again.

During this chaotic weekend, the US Navy seized an Iranian vessel, while Iran fired at ships in the Strait of Hormuz and reinstated control, causing a significant surge in international crude oil and natural gas prices. Brent crude prices rose by 7.9%, almost erasing most of the losses from the previous Friday, after Iran had announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz; European natural gas prices also rose by 11%. Iran once again closed this crucial passage on Saturday, claiming that the US blockade of Iranian-affiliated ships violated the ceasefire agreement that was set to expire on Tuesday. President Trump stated that the US Navy fired at and seized an Iranian vessel in the Gulf of Oman as it ignored warnings to stop while leaving the port of Hormuz. This was the first major conflict between the two sides since the blockade began a week ago. Just hours before the incident, both sides had conflicting statements at talks in Islamabad: Trump believed there was a possibility of reaching an agreement, while Iran claimed there was no "clear" prospect of an agreement. Haris Khurshid, Chief Investment Officer at Karobaar Capital LP, said, "The market is still pricing in risk premium ahead of the deadline, but is not completely betting on a worsening situation. If the situation continues to develop this way, oil prices could gradually rise to around $105-115, but will fluctuate with news." The standoff in the Strait of Hormuz may exacerbate the global energy crisis and has contradicted Trump's weekend prediction that the conflict would end swiftly. Before the US launched a war against Iran at the end of February, around one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas were transported through this strait. This shipping lane is just one of many unresolved issues, including Iran's nuclear capabilities and Israel's continued invasion of Lebanon. Bloomberg's data shows that no vessels were monitored passing through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. At least 13 oil tankers turned back from this inland sea and headed back to the Persian Gulf on Saturday. This conflict has triggered an unprecedented supply shock, exacerbated inflationary pressures, and poses a threat to global economic growth. The compounding effects of this war will gradually become evident this week, and business sentiment surveys in many countries may indicate impending inflationary risks. At the time of writing, Brent crude futures for June delivery were up by 6.79% to $96.52 per barrel, while WTI crude futures for June delivery were up by 7.19% to $88.53 per barrel.