"Hormuz Strait" reopened? US and Iran have conflicting accounts! Oil prices plummeted in response, but oil tankers are skeptical.

Oil prices plunged more than 9% in a single day, but the oil tankers lingering in the strait are expressing doubts through their actions. According to Xinhua News Agency, on April 17th local time, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi announced that Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial ships during the ceasefire reached between Lebanon and Israel. President Trump then confirmed on social media, writing: "Iran has just announced that the Strait of Hormuz is fully open and can be fully navigated. Thank you!" The news caused a strong market reaction. Brent crude oil fell by 9.1% to $90.38 per barrel, hitting a five-week low; European natural gas prices dropped by 7%. US stocks rose at the same time, with the S&P 500 index increasing by 1.2%, recording a weekly increase for the third consecutive week - the index has rebounded by more than 9% since April. However, the actual situation in the strait is much more complex than the statements suggest. Oil tankers "hesitate": sailing towards the strait, then turning back After the announcement, a key observation window appeared in the market - the actual movements of oil tankers. According to Bloomberg, within hours of Iran declaring the opening, at least 8 oil tankers quickly sailed towards the Strait of Hormuz. Five of them had been anchored in the waters north of Dubai and began entering the strait on Friday afternoon after the announcement; another three ships waiting about 70 miles away also began moving towards the strait. The report stated: If these ships continue sailing, their movements will be one of the clearest signals of the strait's opening to non-Iranian vessels since the outbreak of war on February 28th. The Financial Times described that ship-tracking satellites showed at least 25 ships heading towards the strait, including three container ships from French shipping company CMA CGM, four Greek oil tankers, and several Chinese ships. However, among the ships that had set sail after Iran's announcement of the opening, at least 12 ships turned back midway, and several ships, including one from CMA CGM, remained at the entrance of the strait. Several oil and shipping industry executives expressed that the situation was still unclear, and concerns that the strait may have been mined or that Iran may still be trying to control it have led some Western ships to prepare to withdraw from the Gulf. Intertanko's Maritime Director Phillip Belcher said: "Before any resumption of transit, the industry must obtain clear, verified information from Iran and a clear explanation of the US measures taken." Energy analysis firm Kpler analyst Matt Smith bluntly said: "Iranian authorities still seem to act like gatekeepers, choosing which ships can pass through the strait." The Strait of Hormuz previously carried about one-fifth of global oil shipments, and the blockade has lasted for about seven weeks, causing significant volatility in the global energy market. Iran: Conditionally and temporarily open According to Xinhua News Agency, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy Command subsequently issued new regulations for the passage of ships on the evening of the 17th, specifying three points: first, civilian ships must follow Iran's designated route; second, military ships are still prohibited from passing through; and third, all ships must coordinate in advance with the Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy. A spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Defense then further narrowed the scope, saying that the Strait of Hormuz is "conditionally open during the ceasefire, and ships affiliated with hostile forces cannot pass through. Once Lebanon faces pressure, the situation will return to its previous state." This means that Iran's "opening" has clear conditions and time limits - the ceasefire agreement will expire on Tuesday night. Iranian Speaker of Parliament directly contradicts Trump A bigger variable comes from the strong voices within Iran. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of the Iranian Parliament and head of the negotiating team, posted on an X platform, directly refuting Trump's statements: "The US president issued seven statements within an hour, all of them were false." He explicitly warned: If the US naval blockade continues, the strait "will not remain open." Trump himself admitted that he had ordered the naval blockade of Iranian ports to continue until an agreement is reached on ending the war. This has created a direct contradiction: Iran sees the US blockade as a violation of the ceasefire agreement. According to Xinhua News Agency citing Tasnim News Agency, an informed source said that if the blockade continues, Iran will close the strait. How the market prices this uncertainty The sharp drop in oil prices reflects the market's initial reaction to the "opening" news, but analysts are cautious about the future trend. Energy research firm Rapidan Energy Group stated in a report that they are skeptical of signs of a US-Iran agreement and expect that at least until the end of April, the number of oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz will remain at a very low level. The organization pointed out: Iranian negotiators insist that Iran must retain control over the passage of Hormuz, which is an unacceptable bottom line for the Trump administration. The differences between the two sides on the nuclear agreement are also significant." In other words, the market has priced in the "opening," but whether actual passage can be restored depends on an unresolved political deadlock. This article is excerpted from "Wall Street View," by Long Yue. Editor: Zhang Jinliang.