IEA warns: Reopening the Strait of Hormuz does not mean a immediate recovery of oil and gas production, full recovery may take two years.

Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), stated that it may take up to two years to restore most of the oil and natural gas production capacity that was interrupted due to the Iran war. Birol pointed out that the damage caused by the conflict has affected oil fields, refineries, and pipelines in the Persian Gulf region, and the recovery of production capacity will be a gradual process. Furthermore, with the crucial energy transport route, the Strait of Hormuz, nearly closed, the market has lost billions of barrels of crude oil and petroleum products. Birol said, "It is commonly believed that once the strait is reopened, production capacity will immediately return to previous levels - but in my view, this idea is misleading." The recovery of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply may lag further behind, as some receiving terminals damaged in attacks may take over two years to return to normal. Birol also mentioned that if the conflict continues, the most affected will be energy-importing emerging economies, especially countries in Asia and Africa. He added that early signs of shrinking demand have already appeared - including energy rationing, reduced economic activity, and rising inflationary pressures.