The number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week saw the largest weekly drop since February, but the employment market still shows a "low hiring, low layoffs" pattern.

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States decreased last week, indicating that the scale of layoffs remains at a limited level. Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday showed that the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 decreased by 11,000 to 207,000, marking the largest weekly decline since February, lower than market expectations of 215,000 and the revised previous value of 218,000. In addition, the number of continued jobless claims for the week ending April 4 was 1.818 million, higher than market expectations of 1.81 million and the revised previous value of 1.787 million. The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 was 209,800, with a revised previous value of 209,300. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States dropped to 207,000 last week. It is worth noting that initial jobless claims data may fluctuate during holidays, and the latest data released on Thursday covers the Easter holiday period, so there may be some disturbance in the related data. Economist Eliza Winger said, "Although there is some volatility in the weekly data, the number of initial jobless claims continues to signal labor market stability." The data released on Thursday further confirms the trend shown by recent data - that the U.S. labor market is trending towards stability. Another set of data released earlier this month showed a rebound in job growth and a decrease in the unemployment rate in March. This data also corroborates the Beige Book released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. The report indicated that most districts described recent labor demand as "stable;" overall, layoffs are still limited, and business hiring intentions have significantly weakened, more focused on filling vacancies left by departures rather than expanding employment. These signals all indicate that the U.S. labor market is still in a phase of "low hiring, low layoffs." Since the beginning of this year, the number of initial jobless claims has remained between 201,000 and 230,000. Although the number of layoffs remains low, the impact of the oil price shock caused by the U.S.-Iran conflict may hinder hiring. Economists suggest that before the outbreak of the war, the labor market was already stagnant, attributed to Trump's comprehensive import tariffs and the uncertainty brought about by large-scale deportations. Economists argue that the Middle East conflict is just another layer of uncertainty faced by businesses. This is also mentioned in the Beige Book. The Beige Book notes that during March, businesses were generally concerned about the potential cost increases, changes in demand, and macroeconomic impacts brought about by the Middle East conflict, leading many companies to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach and postpone expansion plans. The Beige Book states, "The war has become a major uncertainty, and companies are more cautious in their decisions on hiring, pricing, and investment." Despite showing some resilience in the face of multiple risks, the Beige Book points out that the war is adding new uncertainties and dragging down business confidence and economic activity.