Preview of US Stock Market | Three major stock index futures rise together as the United States and Iran consider extending the ceasefire.

Pre-market market trends 1. On April 16 (Thursday), before the US stock market opened, the futures of the three major US stock indexes were all up. As of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 0.27%, the S&P 500 index futures rose 0.15%, and the Nasdaq futures rose 0.22%. 2. As of writing, the DAX index in Germany rose 0.52%, the FTSE 100 index in the UK rose 0.63%, the CAC 40 index in France rose 0.54%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 0.43%. 3. As of writing, WTI crude oil rose 0.41% to $91.66 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose 0.91% to $95.79 per barrel. Market News Rumors of the US and Iran considering extending the ceasefire. April 22 is the deadline for the two-week temporary ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. According to a source familiar with the matter, the US and Iran are considering extending the ceasefire deadline by two weeks, but both sides have officially denied reaching an agreement on this. Another source familiar with the situation stated that neither side wants to restart the war, as the war has already severely damaged Iran's infrastructure and led to a spike in energy prices, including in the US. Iran has explicitly stated that it has not agreed to the US's extension request and has requested the US to fulfill its commitments in the current ceasefire agreement first. White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt told reporters on Wednesday that the White House has not "formally requested an extension of the ceasefire," but acknowledged that "we are still actively engaged in these negotiations," and emphasized that Pakistan is the only official mediator. US initial jobless claims slightly decreased last week. Data shows that for the week ending April 11, initial jobless claims in the US fell to 207,000, below the market expectation of 215,000 and the previous value of 219,000. For the week ending April 4, continued jobless claims were 1.818 million, above the market expectation of 1.810 million and the previous value of 1.794 million. The four-week average for initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 was 209,800, compared to the previous value of 209,500. Wall Street veteran Yardeni insists that the US stock market has bottomed out: investors are turning to fundamentals and ignoring the war. As expectations for a US-Iran ceasefire rise, there has been a dramatic reversal in market sentiment caused by the war. Yardeni Research President Ed Yardeni once again commented on the situation, concluding that "investors are no longer focusing on the war, but on the fundamentals." Yardeni pointed out that the market is learning to coexist with the war with Iran and maintains the judgment that the S&P 500 index bottomed out on March 30. This means that the market has moved away from the initial panic mode, and GEO Group Inc politics is no longer the dominant factor. Yardeni maintains a target price of 7,700 points by the end of 2026. He noted that the recent 9% pullback of the S&P 500 index is in line with his previous forecast of a correction range of 10% to 15%, enhancing his belief that "the most difficult time for investors is over." He expects the US economy to rebound in the spring after experiencing an economic slowdown due to weather factors, emphasizing that bank profits remain strong and consumer conditions are good. Ignore the noise of war! "Wall Street Oracle" Tom Lee declares that tech stocks dominate everything, signaling the start of a new bull market. Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, known as the "Wall Street Oracle," believes that the current position of the US stock market, and even the global stock market, is stronger than when it hit the previous historical high earlier this year. He firmly predicts that the S&P 500 index, one of the US stock market benchmarks, can rise strongly to 7,300 points in the short term before experiencing any significant downward pullbacks. Lee also agrees with a typical judgment from Wall Street financial giant JPMorgan Chase, namely that the technology sector, centered around AI computing infrastructure, must lead the next phase of the stock market's super bull rally. Lee explained, "When people are concerned about growth prospects, technology is often the only DRIVE for growth." He added that the technology sector has been the most underweighted sector as investors have been selling off their holdings. In terms of valuation, Lee believes that the significant decline in stock prices in the first quarter has made tech stock valuations increasingly attractive relative to their strong profit growth potential. Nomura warns: Do not bet against the rise of US stocks! Unless two fatal signals appear. Nomura Securities strategist McKliggett advises clients not to go against the current upward trend, but also points out two signals that could signal the end of the market party. McKliggett stated that the current rally is very strong, with investors making few bets on the market's rise, leading to what is known as the "uncovered right side upward tail risk" where investors have been warned of this pattern for several weeks. Therefore, investors who have been "over-hedging against volatility" have caused the price of put options (instruments that bet on market downturns) to plummet, leading large institutions to rush to cover their short positions on stocks. This has triggered a frenzy of buying for stocks, especially large tech stocks. McKliggett believes that the current market rally could continue for some time, as investors have previously had too low a risk exposure. However, he also warns that two things could stop the rally abruptly. First, if there is a "physical energy shock, where there is a substantial shortage of crude oil and petrochemical products starting in May." Second, a sell-off in the bond market. Once bond yields start to rise, the market may be scared, putting an end to the current push higher. Global markets are too optimistic! IMF and World Bank warn: Do not underestimate the economic impact of war. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank believe that investors are underestimating the economic losses from the Iran war. Participants at various public forums, private dinners, and sideline events in Washington this week are gradually forming a consensus - even if the US and Iran quickly reach a lasting peace agreement, the impact of this conflict on the global economy may worsen significantly before improving. Government officials and other attendees at the conference opening warned that what the world is currently experiencing is far from a regular shock. They cautioned that what may take root is structural change, involving cost escalation, longer trade routes, and increased political uncertainty, leading to a slowdown in global growth. Individual stock news AI computing power demand outshines everything! Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR (TSM.US) profits surged 58% in the first quarter. Q1 total revenue for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR was NT$1.134 trillion, a 35% year-on-year increase, exceeding the estimated NT$1.12 trillion; operating profit was NT$659 billion, also surpassing analysts' average estimate of NT$623.8 billion. Advanced processes are still the core engine of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR's revenue. The 5nm and below processes contribute over 60% of revenue and show a trend of accelerating growth each quarter. Q1 gross margin rose to a record 66.2%, expanding nearly 4 percentage points from the previous quarter's 62.3%, significantly higher than the market's average expectation of 64.5%. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR also forecasts second-quarter revenue in the range of $39 billion to $40.2 billion, significantly higher than the market's expected $38.1 billion; it expects second-quarter gross margin of 65.5% to 67.5%, also higher than the market's estimate of 64%. This performance is expected to allay concerns in the market about whether the deteriorating situation in the Middle East could dampen demand for AI data centers and smart devices like iPhones. As of writing, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR was down over 1% in pre-market trading on Thursday. Oil and gas trading business surges amid conflict clouds, TotalEnergies(TTE.US) pre-announces strong Q1 performance. French energy giant TotalEnergies said in a trading update report on Thursday that its performance in the first quarter was strong, thanks to a significant increase in energy prices and increased production outside the Middle East, mitigating the impact of the Iran war. The company also expects a substantial increase in oil and gas production and trading performance in the quarter. The company's first-quarter financial report will be released later this month. The conflict in the Middle East that erupted at the end of February disrupted the energy markets, with shipping through the critical Hormuz Strait almost completely halted. European oil majors have significant trading businesses that typically profit from market volatility. Shell and BP p.l.c. Sponsored ADR both reported strong first-quarter trading performance. Abbott Laboratories(ABT.US) beats Q1 expectations but lowers full-year profit guidance due to acquisition of Exact Sciences. Data shows that Abbott Laboratories' Q1 sales grew by 7.8% year-on-year to $11.16 billion, surpassing the market expectation of $11 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $1.15, slightly above the market expectation of $1.14. However, the company currently expects adjusted earnings per share for the year to be $5.38 to $5.58 (previously expected $5.55 to $5.80), with the midpoint of the forecast range and lower than the market's expected $5.60 per share. The company attributed part of the earnings guidance reduction to the acquisition of cancer diagnostics company Exact Sciences completed last month, which will decrease adjusted earnings per share by 20 cents. The company still expects organic sales growth for the full year to be between 6.5% and 7.5%. For the second quarter, adjusted earnings per share are expected to be between $1.25 and $1.31, lower than the market's expectation of $1.36. As of writing, Abbott Laboratories fell over 4% in pre-market trading on Thursday. Price cuts pay off! PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP.US) beats Q1 expectations, achieving 54 consecutive years of dividend growth. PepsiCo, Inc.'s first-quarter revenue grew by 8.5% year-on-year to $19.44 billion, surpassing the market expectation; organic sales excluding currency fluctuations and acquisitions grew by 2.6% year-on-year, higher than the market's general expectation of 2.4%. Core earnings per share were $1.61, also exceeding the market's expectation. The performance growth was attributed to CEO Ramon Laguarta's snack price reduction measures. The company reiterated its 2026 fiscal year performance guidance unchanged: organic revenue growth of 2%-4% and core constant currency earnings per share growth of 4%-6%. The company also maintains its established shareholder cash return plan, including the previously announced annual 4% increase in per-share dividends starting in June 2026, marking PepsiCo, Inc.'s 54th consecutive year of annual dividend increases. Frequent client trading activities and market volatility boost Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW.US) beats Q1 expectations. The financial report shows that Charles Schwab Corp's Q1 revenue grew by 16% year-on-year to $6.48 billion, slightly above the market's expectation of $6.47 billion. Trading revenue increased by 20%, and net interest income rose by 16%. Net profit grew by 30% to $2.48 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $1.43, better than the market's expectation of $1.40. The company stated last month that the daily average trading volume in February reached a record 9.9 million transactions. Margin loan balances (the amount customers borrow from Charles Schwab Corp to buy securities) increased by 13% over the last three months of 2025. As of writing, Charles Schwab Corp was down over 2% in pre-market trading on Thursday. Important economic data and events announcement 9:15 pm Beijing time: US industrial production for March 10:35 pm Beijing time: Federal Reserve Governor Milan speech Earnings outlook Friday morning: Netflix (NFLX.US), Alcoa Corporation (AA.US) Friday pre-market: Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson Sponsored ADR Class B (ERIC.US)