Predicting the market is entering the fast lane: By 2030, trading volume is aiming for trillions. Robinhood (HOOD.US), Coinbase (COIN.US) may become the best "tickets" in the public market.

With the continuous surge in predicted market trading volume by 2026, Wall Street investment banks have begun to outline a grand blueprint for the future of this emerging sector. According to the latest reports from investment banks like Bernstein and Cantor Fitzgerald, the prediction market industry led by Kalshi and Polymarket has seen a growth curve comparable to the artificial intelligence (AI) frenzy, with Robinhood (HOOD.US) and Coinbase (COIN.US) in the public market seen as the best ways to ride this high-speed train. Trading volume skyrocketing, aiming for trillions by 2030 The prediction market is set to explode in 2026. Analyst Gautam Chhugani from Bernstein pointed out in a report that in just the first few months of this year, the annual cumulative trading volume of the two major platforms Kalshi and Polymarket has reached around $60 billion, surpassing the total volume of $51 billion for the whole of 2025. He predicts that the total trading volume for the entire year of 2026 will reach $240 billion, a staggering 370% increase from the previous year. The long-term growth expectations are even more astonishing. Chhugani predicts that from 2025 to 2030, the compound annual growth rate of the prediction market will remain at around 80%, with the annual trading volume reaching $1 trillion by the early next decade. Chhugani expects that further clarity in the federal regulatory environment will unleash the market's potential, and the tokenization of blockchain as well as integration with cryptocurrencies will enhance market liquidity. He also stated that the composition of trading contracts may change. He wrote, "We expect that as investors seek more direct and precise exposure to events surrounding economic, business, and political events, institution markets will gradually grow and expand." Bank of America Corp analyst Julie Hoover also expressed admiration, calling Kalshi (which holds over 90% of the U.S. market share) one of the fastest-growing non-AI companies in the U.S., with its weekly trading volume soaring from around $100 million a year ago to over $3 billion currently. Who are the biggest beneficiaries in the public market? Although Kalshi and Polymarket are currently private companies (with a combined valuation of $31 billion as of March), keen capital has already positioned itself through public market "proxy targets." Analysts from Cantor and Bernstein have both set their sights on Robinhood and Coinbase. Chhugani stated that Robinhood's prediction market hub has been online for a year, with an annual recurring revenue of $350 million, contributing about 30% of Kalshi's total trading volume. This business has become the fastest-growing sector for Robinhood, which may prompt Robinhood to develop its own exchange. Coinbase has also launched a prediction market feature. Its prediction market product supported by Kalshi infrastructure is now open to all its users. Although still in the early stages, the product covers multiple categories such as cryptocurrencies, economics, and global events. Cantor analyst Ramsey El-Assal emphasized that the core advantage of these two companies lies in their large retail user base and existing trading infrastructure, enabling them to quickly drive liquidity and participation. From gambling to macro hedging: an institutionalized revolution Currently, sports contracts account for over 60% of trading volume in the prediction market. But Bernstein predicts that this percentage will halve by 2030. The future growth will come from institutional demand. Chhugani pointed out that with regulatory clarity and liquidity brought about by blockchain tokenization, corporations, insurance companies, and institutional investors will increasingly use this tool for macroeconomic hedging and managing specific event risks. The prediction market is evolving from a retail speculative toy to a multifunctional risk management tool for institutions. Cantor also sees long-term applications in hedging and prediction. El-Assal in the report refuted the misconception that the prediction market is equivalent to gambling, pointing out that its nature is no different from stock tradingusers buy and sell probabilities of being "over" or "underestimated" in the market, and the platform earns transaction fees rather than betting profits. Cantor stated, "The prediction market will become a multifunctional tool for institutional investors," and pointed out its potential uses in risk management and macro hedging. Regulatory fog: short-term pains and long-term clarity Despite the promising prospects, the current regulatory landscape is still deemed "confusing" by Cantor, which noted that federal and state regulators have differing opinions on whether derivative rules or gambling rules should apply to the prediction market. Hoover from Bank of America Corp stated that there are currently legal disputes pending in 14 states in the U.S., and four congressional bills are under consideration, with the main concerns relating to insider trading. Some states have started legal actions against the prediction market, claiming authority to regulate sports betting; while the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is in conflict with states, claiming exclusive authority to regulate the prediction market. Despite this, analysts remain optimistic about the long-term trends. Chhugani believes that despite facing state challenges, as Kalshi, Polymarket, and listed companies align with federal regulatory agencies (SEC, CFTC), the improvement in regulatory clarity will be a key catalyst for market legalization and mainstream adoption. Cantor's conclusion is that the prediction market is unlikely to disappear. With the regulatory landscape becoming clearer, companies with large user bases and strong distribution channels, such as Robinhood and Coinbase, may be in the most favorable position to capitalize on this trend.