Trump said he is "very optimistic" about reaching an agreement with Iran. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed.

President Trump of the United States expressed "very optimistic" about reaching an agreement with Iran on Thursday. However, Israel's military actions in Lebanon continue to escalate, and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz has made the prospects of a ceasefire and diplomatic negotiations uncertain. Trump stated in an interview that the Iranian leadership is "more rational than their public statements suggest," and revealed that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has agreed to "reduce the intensity of actions" in Lebanon. The news of direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon caused oil prices to initially fall, but they later rose again due to attacks on energy facilities. Currently, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with shipping volume far below pre-war levels. As a key channel for around 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas transportation, the passage through the strait has become a negotiating core issue. Data shows that only a very small number of ships are currently passing through daily, compared to around 135 ships under normal circumstances. Iran has proposed a series of conditions including war reparations, maintaining control of the strait, and continuing uranium enrichment, increasing the difficulty of negotiations. At the same time, the situation in Lebanon is escalating, posing a challenge to the ceasefire. Iranian President Pezheshiyan accused Israeli actions of "seriously violating the ceasefire agreement," which could render negotiations "meaningless." At the market level, geopolitical risks continue to disrupt asset prices. Light crude oil futures for delivery in May on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $3.46 to close at $97.87 per barrel, up 3.66%; while London Brent crude oil futures for delivery in June rose by $1.17 to close at $95.92 per barrel, up 1.23%. Meanwhile, the U.S. stock market has shown relatively stable performance, with the S&P 500 index rising for the seventh consecutive trading day, reflecting some expectation in the market for a ceasefire. However, the supply shocks caused by the conflict are intensifying. Over 800 cargo ships are stranded in the Persian Gulf, energy transportation is disrupted, and the global supply chain is under pressure. Analysts point out that if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume normal passage in the short term, the global energy market may face further tightening.