The passage through the Hormuz Strait is still restricted, and Iran is advancing legislation to strengthen control over the waterway.

Since the escalation of conflicts in late February 2026, despite numerous attempts by the international community to mediate and reach fragile temporary ceasefire agreements, commercial shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has not returned as expected. According to shipping monitoring data, the previously bustling scene in the area has almost disappeared, with the daily traffic volume dropping from a peak of 135 vessels to single digits. Currently, over 2,000 vessels are stranded at the exit of the Persian Gulf, including over 200 supertankers fully loaded with crude oil. This de facto blockade has pushed Brent crude oil prices to $98 per barrel, putting the global energy market in a highly tense state. Reports indicate that Iran's port and maritime organization has announced two safe navigation routes, indicating Iran's attempt to formally control the waterway. This organization stated that the establishment of these routes is to avoid possible anti-ship mines on the conventional shipping routes in the narrow strait. As ships associated with Iran pass through the waterway, three Chinese oil tankers carrying Saudi and Iraqi crude oil sailed towards the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, anchoring near the entrance of the shipping lane, responsible for transporting approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas. Despite a ceasefire agreement reached between the US and Iran earlier this week leading to a drop in oil prices, the deadlock continues. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed The flow of oil has almost come to a standstill, causing severe shortages in the market supply. Despite the drop in futures prices, the real supply of oil remains scarce. US Vice President Pence stated that there are signs that the Strait of Hormuz is beginning to reopen, but the CEO of the UAE's largest oil producer stated on Thursday that the strait is still effectively closed. The CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, Sultan Jaber, commented on LinkedIn, saying, "It must be clear: the Strait of Hormuz is not open. Passage is restricted, constrained, and controlled." Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister told British ITV that "any" vessel can navigate freely but must communicate with the Iranian military and confirm that the waterway has been mined. According to sources, on Wednesday, a ship's crew reported hearing an Iranian warning that permission is still required to pass through the strait. Another source stated that at least one oil tanker canceled its passage plans upon learning that Iran still insists on requiring permission. The speed at which the Strait of Hormuz reopens is crucial for the global energy market. Even if ships start leaving, it is unclear whether other vessels will be willing to enter given the ceasefire is only two weeks old. Additionally, once oil transportation resumes through the waterway, it will still take weeks to months for the oil to reach buyers. President Trump posted on social media last night that the US military will continue to remain in the region, warning that without an agreement, "shootings will erupt on a scale, intensity, and vigor greater than ever before." The head of the International Maritime Organization stated on Thursday that if Iran attempts to permanently implement a fee system in the Strait of Hormuz, it would set a dangerous precedent and be unacceptable. The Secretary-General of the organization, Kitack Lim, stated, "We cannot accept another state introducing a different mechanism contrary to international norms." He noted that the International Maritime Organization is working to restore shipping in the region to pre-conflict levels, with multiple countries, including the UK, investigating whether there are mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Martin Kelly, the head of consultancy at EOS Risk Group, stated that the discussion about mines resurfacing in the Strait of Hormuz is the "worst-case scenario for the shipping industry." He pointed out that if the traffic separation scheme (TSS) is disrupted by mines, it would take at least several months to restore safe passage. Currently, the bookings for oil-carrying vessels in the Persian Gulf remain limited. According to a Bloomberg summary of charter lists, a trading company booked a vessel on Wednesday to transport a million barrels of oil from Iraq. Market sources stated that on the same day, another Middle Eastern crude oil supertanker booking failed. Two Persian Gulf crude oil traders mentioned that there have been minimal changes in the region's cargo trade since the ceasefire. The International Chamber of Shipping, representing over 80% of the world's fleet owners, stated that more work needs to be done before large-scale passage of ships can resume. Secretary-General Thomas Kazakos said in a Bloomberg Radio interview, "Without assured safe passage, progress is minimal." He added, "We still have not received exact information on how traffic will return to normal." Iran attempts to forcibly take control of the "toll rights" in the Strait of Hormuz Under the cover of a military blockade, Iran is employing unprecedented administrative measures in an attempt to transform its temporary military control of the strait into long-term institutional jurisdiction. The Iranian parliament is currently accelerating the controversial legislation designed to levy so-called "transit security fees" on all foreign commercial vessels passing through the strait. According to the proposed plan, a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) seeking passage permission may need to pay fees as high as $2 million, with Iran explicitly requiring settlement in cryptocurrencies or Chinese yuan to circumvent existing financial sanctions. The initiative has been dubbed by the international shipping community as the "Iranian toll booth," directly challenging the principle of transit passage in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, and signaling Iran's attempt to convert the internationally recognized strait into internal waters under its management. At the same time, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has implemented strict classification management and mandatory routes in practice. Currently, all approved vessels must strictly adhere to the two "safety corridors" designated by the Iranian port and maritime organization, compressing the routes within the narrow sea area between Larak Island and Qeshm Island for close-range identification and real-time monitoring by the Iranian military. Under this selective passage mechanism, vessels associated with the US and Israel are completely excluded from the list of passageways, while vessels from specific countries with friendly trade relations with Iran are given priority passage rights. This discriminatory passage policy is reshaping the scheduling of global oil tankers, leading to a large number of stranded merchant ships having to choose to detour around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, increasing sailing times by weeks and exacerbating inflationary pressures globally. Looking forward to the coming week, diplomatic maneuvers will enter a crucial stage. Despite the White House publicly downplaying the severity of the blockade and asserting that Iran has shown willingness to ease tensions in private communications, there remains a significant gap between ground realities and diplomatic rhetoric. Representatives from the US and Iran are scheduled to hold a secret meeting this Saturday in Islamabad, Pakistan, seen as crucial in unlocking the current deadlock. If the two sides fail to reach a phased compromise on freedom of navigation in the strait and Iran's territorial claims, the long-term administrative risks of the Strait of Hormuz will persist. At that time, the global energy price could face extreme risks of exceeding $120 per barrel, and the surge in international shipping insurance rates will further erode the recovery momentum of the global economy.