Crude oil spot prices skyrocketed to $124.68, with a premium of nearly $30 over futures! The supply crisis resulting from the difficult ceasefire between the US and Iran is hard to resolve.

On Wednesday, the spot price of Brent crude oil was reported at $124.68 per barrel, down $19.75 per barrel after the two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, but still nearly $30 higher than the Brent crude oil June futures contract, which closed at $94.75 per barrel on Wednesday. This indicates that even if the ceasefire agreement is maintained, the deep supply disruption caused by this five-week war is unlikely to be resolved, and the oil supply will remain tight for some time. The spot price of Brent crude oil is for oil delivery in the next 10 to 30 days, as opposed to the futures contracts for delivery in June and beyond. Amrita Sen, founder of Energy Aspects, an energy consulting company, stated that the spot price of physical goods reflects the real situation on land and at sea. She explained that due to a significant decrease in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, Middle Eastern oil-producing countries have shut down production of 13 million barrels per day. She added that most tankers are now heading to the US to load crude oil. She said, "These ships may not be able to turn back towards the Middle East until June, this is a total mess." Amena Bakr, Middle East and OPEC issues expert at the commodity and energy market data analysis company Kpler, stated that due to the war, several hundred million barrels of oil have been taken out of the market, and it may take up to five months to restore production capacity. Bakr said, "This depends on how long the ceasefire can last," and whether the ceasefire will further push for a peace agreement. Sheikh Nawaf al-Sabah, CEO of Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, had previously stated in March that it would take up to four months for Gulf Arab oil-producing countries to fully restore pre-war production levels. Kuwait's production before the war was around 2.6 million barrels per day, making it the fifth-largest oil-producing country in OPEC. He said, "Our oil reserves are resilient and can immediately resume a significant portion of production within days. Most production will be restored in a matter of weeks, and all production will be restored within three to four months." The International Energy Agency (IEA) had also warned last month that the damage caused to the global energy supply chain by the Middle East war was unprecedented and the repair cycle would be long. The IEA stated that the Middle East war had led to "severe or extremely severe" damage to over 40 energy facilities in nine countries, and the restoration of production in oil fields, refineries, and pipelines would take a considerable amount of time. This impact was equivalent to the combined effects of the two major oil crises in the 1970s and the natural gas crisis triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. For the global energy market already facing severe supply disruptions, the only way out in the short term is the resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. However, according to the latest information, on April 8, the first day the temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran took effect, Israel launched its largest air strike since the start of the conflict with Hezbollah. Iran claimed that this violated the ceasefire agreement, and once again closed the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to take deterrent action against Israeli military targets. However, on the same morning, after the ceasefire agreement was reached, two tankers safely passed through the Strait of Hormuz with permission from Iran. Data showed that hours after the US and Iran announced the ceasefire, most of the thousands of ships trapped in the Strait of Hormuz were still "waiting and watching," with only a few passing through. Kpler noted that as of the 7th, there were over 1,000 ships waiting to leave the strait, including approximately 187 tankers. Even under normal navigation conditions, it would take over two weeks for these ships to queue up and leave the strait. In addition, US President Trump stated that the Israeli strikes on Lebanon were "another separate conflict." He said that because Hezbollah in Lebanon was not included in the ceasefire, "this issue will be addressed later". The White House announced on April 8 that the first round of US-Iran talks would be held in Pakistan on the 11th, but Iran stated that three key terms were violated in the 10 ceasefire terms, breaking the "negotiating basis".