Hong Kong stock concept tracking | Central bank continues to increase holding of gold for 17 consecutive months, the long-term logic of gold price increase remains unchanged (with concept stocks)

According to data from the People's Bank of China, as of the end of March 2026, official gold reserves stood at 74.38 million ounces, an increase of 160,000 ounces from the previous month, marking the first time since March 2025 that monthly holdings have increased by more than 100,000 ounces. Currently, the People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for 17 consecutive months. Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Orient Securities, analyzed that the escalating situation in the Middle East significantly pushed up international oil prices, and the global monetary easing expectations, including the Fed rate cuts, cooled off. In March, the international gold price fell by double digits, which may be a direct reason for the central bank's accelerated gold purchases in that month. Additionally, the outbreak of geopolitical risks in the Middle East is also a factor driving central banks to increase gold holdings. Wang Qing stated that the continuous increase in gold holdings by central banks in recent times is fundamentally due to new changes in the global political and economic situation since the current US government took office. This means that despite gold prices being at historical highs, the necessity of increasing gold holdings from the perspective of optimizing international reserves has risen. It is reported that since the deterioration of the situation in Iran, gold has experienced dramatic fluctuations. Since the beginning of 2026, influenced by multiple factors, gold prices have been volatile. After two consecutive months of gains, both London gold and COMEX gold fell in March, with declines of 11.54% and 11.07% respectively. With the possibility of prolonged conflict in the Middle East, there are concerns in the market that central banks may have to sell gold reserves to counteract soaring inflation, slowing economic growth, and currency devaluation. This concern is considered a major factor leading to the 16% drop in gold prices in March. Recently, central banks in Turkey, Russia, and Poland have indicated that they have already sold or are prepared to sell gold reserves, especially the Central Bank of Turkey, which has reduced its reserves by nearly 120 tons in the past two weeks. The analysis suggests that since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, global energy prices have surged significantly, and Turkey's energy is highly dependent on imports, leading to a sharp increase in foreign exchange payment pressure. At the same time, market risk aversion has risen, the Turkish lira faces devaluation pressure, and the Central Bank of Turkey has had to increase its intervention efforts to support the lira exchange rate and improve market liquidity. UBS recently stated in a research report that the structural trend of official sector gold purchases has not changed, and central banks remain net buyers of gold. UBS expects central bank gold purchases to gradually slow down, with purchases this year expected to be between 800 and 850 tons, slightly lower than the approximately 860 tons in 2025. Some even believe that the previous decline in gold prices may have created a "gold pit," making it a good time to purchase gold now. Goldman Sachs stated that the recent decline in gold prices has been "clearly overdone," with markets overestimating inflation and underestimating the downturn in growth; as prices stabilize, central bank buying behavior is expected to pick up again, with an average monthly purchase volume of around 60 tons; coupled with the expected two more rate cuts this year, the year-end gold price target is maintained at $5400 per ounce. Looking ahead to the second quarter, Nanhua Futures stated that the evolution of the situation in the Middle East, Fed policy, and supply-demand fundamentals will jointly dominate the pace of the precious metals market. However, the marginal impact of geopolitical events is expected to gradually weaken, and gold prices are expected to return to a pricing model dominated by currency policy adjustments and supply-demand fundamentals. Following a bottoming out after volatility, precious metal prices in the second quarter are expected to gradually recover from previous declines and rise again, with short-term adjustments not altering the medium-to-long-term upward trend. Huatai believes that liquidity squeezes have temporarily removed gold from its traditional inflation hedge properties, putting pressure on gold prices. In the medium to long term, the global "de-dollarization" and unsustainable US fiscal situation will continue to support gold's allocation value, shifting the pricing logic of gold towards credit risk hedging and asset reconfiguration. Related concept stocks: ZIJIN GOLD INTL (02259): In 2025, the company reported revenue of $5.383 billion, an 80.05% year-on-year increase; net profit attributable to owners was $1.602 billion, a 232.71% year-on-year increase; basic earnings per share were $0.82. The company plans to distribute a final dividend of HK$1.5 per share in cash. Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693): In 2025, the company generated operating income of 12.639 billion yuan, a 40.03% year-on-year increase; net profit attributable to owners was 3.082 billion yuan, a 74.7% year-on-year increase; basic earnings per share were 1.69 yuan. The company plans to distribute a year-end dividend per share of RMB 0.32 in cash. Shandong Gold Mining (01787): In 2025, the company's revenue was approximately 104.287 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 26.38% from the previous year; net profit attributable to the mother company's shareholders was approximately 4.739 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 60.57% from the previous year; the board of directors proposes to distribute a year-end dividend of RMB 1.80 per 10 shares (including tax) for the year ending December 31, 2025. ZHAOJIN MINING (01818): In 2025, the company reported revenue of 18.056 billion yuan, a 56.32% year-on-year increase; shareholders' net profit was 3.614 billion yuan, a 149.1% year-on-year increase; basic earnings per share were 0.96 yuan. It plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.1 yuan per share.