US plans to implement legislation to force allies to tighten restrictions on lithography machines towards China, causing ASML Holding NV ADR (ASML.US) stock price to decline under pressure.

Due to a new legislative proposal targeting advanced semiconductor equipment exports from the United States Congress last week, the stock price of global semiconductor equipment giant ASML Holding NV ADR (ASML.US) fell by 4.7% in European stock markets at one point, while its American stock ADR fell by over 1% before the market opened. Market panic mainly stems from the proposed "Hardware Technology Control Multilateral Alliance Act" (MATCH Act) by the United States, which aims to use legislative means to force allied countries to simultaneously implement export restrictions on China in order to eliminate the competitive disadvantage faced by American domestic companies due to the inconsistent policies of various countries. This bill, jointly initiated by bipartisan lawmakers in the United States, not only marks a further escalation of export controls, but also touches on the core service links of the semiconductor industry chain. The MATCH Act specifically requires that if ally countries such as the Netherlands and Japan do not establish an export control system equivalent to that of the United States within 150 days, the U.S. Department of Commerce will have the right to exercise extraterritorial jurisdiction. The specific restrictions of the proposal have extended from the cutting-edge extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines to the widely used immersion deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography equipment. What's even more severe is that the bill proposes to prohibit equipment suppliers from providing daily maintenance, software upgrades, and key component replacement services for restricted equipment that has already been sold, a clause that analysts see as a potential threat to China's mature process chip manufacturing capabilities. Financial data shows that although ASML Holding NV ADR had already hinted at policy risks in its financial reports, the impact of the proposed legislation still exceeded investors' expectations. The Chinese market contributed approximately 33% of ASML Holding NV ADR's global sales in 2025, making it its most important revenue growth engine. The company also predicts that its sales in China will account for 20% of total sales in 2026, but sales of old models will not be affected. Analysts' views vary on the financial impact. Degroof Petercam analyst Michael Roeg estimates that the new restrictions could reduce ASML Holding NV ADR's sales by a "single-digit" percentage. JPMorgan analyst Sandip Deshpande stated in his latest assessment report that if the bill is signed into law, ASML Holding NV ADR's annual earnings per share (EPS) could face a reduction of up to 10%, and its business share in the Chinese market could further decline from the expected 20%. Deshpande further pointed out that ASML Holding NV ADR's sales in other regions will "significantly increase, but not enough to offset the lost Chinese income," as non-Chinese chip manufacturers will increase capacity as compensation. He wrote in a report that the global market would be the most affected. He said, "The current tight chip capacity in multiple markets will sharply worsen with the implementation of these restrictions." At the same time, affected by this anticipated policy impact, leading global semiconductor equipment suppliers such as Tokyo Electron and Applied Materials (AMAT.US) have also seen their stock prices decline, indicating deep disruptions to the stability of the global semiconductor supply chain by this bill. Currently, ASML Holding NV ADR has officially refused to comment on this legislative development, while the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs has reiterated that trade policy should be independently regulated by sovereign states. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has repeatedly stated its strong opposition to the United States' generalization of national security concepts and abuse of export control measures to maliciously block Chinese companies. While the bill is still in the early stages of legislation, requiring votes from both houses of Congress and the president's signature to take effect, due to its bipartisan support, the market generally believes that the bill is likely to be passed in the second half of 2026.