Who is smashing the Bitcoin plate? The selling pressure of whales counteracts the buying pressure of ETFs, and the rebound in March cannot hide the demand vacuum.

Data analysis platform CryptoQuant data shows that despite an increase in institutional buying, demand for Bitcoin remains under pressure, indicating that a broader market is still selling the token. As of the end of last month, the "apparent demand" indicator, measuring Bitcoin demand relative to the amount of newly mined Bitcoin, was negative, at around 63,000 coins. This situation occurred against the backdrop of strong buying periods for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Michael Saylor's digital asset company Strategy Inc. (MSTR.US) continuing to increase its holdings of Bitcoin. The report states, "The selling volume from retail and other market participants exceeds the increase in buying volume from institutions. The continued contraction of demand since late November 2025 confirms that the overall market is still in a distribution phase." Data indicates that the market is facing a situation where new demand is being offset by existing holders selling - a dynamic that could limit gains even as institutional interest appears to be building. Although Bitcoin barely ended its five-month downward trend in March with a small rebound of about 2.2%, the overall market rebound momentum appears to be lacking. The core issue is that large holders known as "whales" have shifted from a long-term accumulation mode to an aggressive net selling mode, directly counteracting the bullish sentiment brought about by recent spot ETFs and some corporate accumulation. In the historical context of fund flows, these whale investors had accumulated around 200,000 Bitcoins during the bull market of 2024. However, since reaching highs in mid-2025, this portion of chips has begun to loosen massively, with a significant acceleration in distribution in the fourth quarter of 2025. Although Bitcoin stabilized above $68,000 at the end of March 2026, the drop is still close to 45% compared to the historical peak of $126,000 in October 2025. This structural deleveraging behavior reflects early holders' aversion to current high-interest rate macro environment and political turmoil at GEO Group Inc, with the continued exit of large holders becoming a major obstacle to price recovery. At the same time, medium-sized investors who had been accumulating are slowing down their buying pace, removing another layer of support. In recent weeks, demand for Bitcoin in the United States has also weakened, with the Coinbase premium index (a measure of the price difference between US exchanges and foreign exchanges) turning negative again, indicating that US investors are no longer aggressively pushing up the price of Bitcoin. Although institutional entities led by Strategy Inc. continued to expand contrarily in the first quarter of 2026, pushing their holdings to a new high of about 762,000 coins, and US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of about $1.32 billion in March, reversing the four-month outflow trend, these buy orders still cannot completely offset the overall selling pressure in the market. However, CryptoQuant suggests that if the macro environment improves, especially if the US-Iran conflict de-escalates, the price of Bitcoin may rebound in the short term. The report states, "The easing of political tensions at GEO Group Inc could be a positive catalyst in the near term, potentially triggering a round of rebounding." Looking ahead, with selling pressure still dominant, the market is cautious about Bitcoin's short-term price movements. According to the latest odds from prediction markets like Polymarket, traders believe there is a 74% probability that Bitcoin will fall to $55,000 within the year. In the absence of explosive growth in demand, the turnover of chips between large holders and institutions will continue to drive market volatility. The current situation of "institutions struggling to pick up and large holders withdrawing" suggests that Bitcoin may need more time to digest the redundant chips sold at high levels before truly starting a new trend of upward movement.