GF SEC: Review of the 5 rounds of oil crisis, what are the rules of industry rotation?

GF Securities released a research report stating core conclusions: first, the index needs some time to bottom out; second, the "April decision" focuses on some independent high prosperity directions that are not related to overseas high oil prices, high inflation, and high interest rates, including new energy, domestic AIDC, and overseas computing power. Impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on the global economy: (1) The predictive model of the Dallas Fed shows that by the end of the second quarter of 2026, the probability of the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed is still 58%; the results of the betting website KALSHI also show that the probability of the Strait of Hormuz being open before July 2026 is 63%; (2) The closure of the Strait of Hormuz will not only directly lead to a sharp reduction in oil supply by close to 20%, but will also result in a decrease in LNG supply by about 20%, urea by about 30%, ammonia and phosphate by about 20%, and sulfur by about 50%. (3) The Dallas Fed's model shows that if the Strait of Hormuz is closed for a quarter and there are no other mitigating measures, it will lead to an increase in the average price of WTI crude oil to $98 per barrel by the second quarter of 2026, and will cause the global GDP growth rate in Q2 to decrease by 2.9 percentage points from the initial level - the current scenario with a likelihood of Q2 impact and Q3 recovery, without substantial recession. Which historical oil crisis does the current oil crisis resemble? After the rise in oil prices during wartime, there may be two possible outcomes: rapid fall after a pulse, or maintaining high levels after a pulse. Comparison of the current oil crisis with history: (1) Economic cycle: before the outbreak of the war, it was in a phase of fiscal easing and demand recovery, similar to the recovery period during the Kosovo war. (2) Monetary cycle: before the outbreak of war, it was in a period of interest rate cuts, similar to the monetary environment during the Gulf War, but the current interest rate cuts are part of monetary normalization, while the cuts back then were part of a recession. (3) Oil price trend: during the first and second oil crises, due to continuous restrictions on crude oil supply, oil prices remained high; during the Kosovo war, due to OPEC production cuts and rising demand, oil prices remained high; and there have been two instances of oil price pulses falling back: the Gulf War (oil prices returned to pre-war levels in 6 months) and the Russia-Ukraine conflict (oil prices returned to pre-war levels in 3 months). Reviewing market and sector trends after several war crises: (1) Directions with excess returns during crises: firstly, oil, precious metals, and defense industries catalyzed by war, and secondly, defensive sectors like telecommunications and tobacco, but if in a bear market, defensive assets may also see declines towards the end of the market, as seen in August and September 1974; thirdly, there are sectors with strong industry trends, such as consumer goods in the 1980s and technology in the 1990s. (2) Excess returns in oil and natural gas generally peak alongside oil prices; the sectors most impacted by high oil prices are typically tourism and leisure. (3) If oil prices remain high after a pulse, further discussion is needed on the impact on inflation and demand, with the first oil crisis being a negative case (entering a stagflation period), the second oil crisis being a positive case (war impact lasting only 1 month), and the Kosovo war also being a positive case (gradual impact of oil prices). (4) If oil prices fall after a pulse, the market will usually return to its original trajectory after briefly reflecting war factors (each era's main sectors differ), and funds may even concentrate towards sectors with more certain prosperity, such as defense in the early 1980s, consumption in the early 1990s, and technology towards the end of the 1990s.