Trump always takes action on the weekends, so Wall Street no longer dares to hold positions over the weekend.

Trump is accustomed to releasing major updates during weekends, forcing Wall Street to readjust. Last Saturday, Trump announced that Iran must reach an agreement within 48 hours, otherwise it will face a series of devastating attacks on public facilities and other infrastructure. However, by this Monday, Trump canceled this plan, stating that the strikes on energy facilities will be suspended for five days. Following the announcement, Brent crude oil plunged over 14% on Monday. However, by Thursday of the same week, Trump announced after the close of the stock market that the deadline will be extended to April 6. On that day, spot oil prices briefly turned lower and risk assets bounced, but the market seemed to be gradually "immune" to Trump's verbal interventions, with asset prices returning to their intraday trends. According to Wall Street news on Friday, after the situation escalated further, US oil recovered all its losses for the week, and US stocks saw a significant decline this week, with the Dow Jones falling over 10% from its high point this year, entering a correction. Trump's series of actions during market closures had a substantial impact on market trading behavior. Traders in stocks, fixed income, and commodities markets are now generally reluctant to hold large positions before the weekend to avoid possible drastic fluctuations on Monday's opening. Chief Fixed Income Strategist Kathy Jones of Charles Schwab Wealth Management said this week: Entering the weekend with any level of position could lead to a very difficult Monday morning. Weekend moves have become a fixed pattern Analyzing Trump's actions over the past period, it is found that he often takes major actions on Saturdays. The airstrikes against Iran in June last year, the forceful control of Venezuelan President Maduro this year, and the latest military actions against Iran all happened on Saturdays or throughout the weekend, when major markets, including the foreign exchange market, were closed. White House spokesperson Kush Desai denied any connection between the timing of military actions and market closure in an email statement, saying: The timing of these military actions is determined based on stock market closure times, not intelligence advice and the most strategically advantageous time for mission success. This idea is absurd, only someone who has not even planned a child's birthday party would believe it. According to reports, an unnamed White House official also claimed that it is purely coincidental that so many major events happen to fall on weekends. But Trump's penchant for dramatic actions, and his habit of acting outside of trading hours, has reshaped the interaction between Wall Street and Washington. As the situation in the Strait of Hormuz becomes increasingly serious, his ability to soothe the market with optimistic remarks is gradually weakening. Even though Trump announced a 10-day suspension of military actions, there is no guarantee that this promise can be sustained. Market stress index hits a new high under Trump's presidency An analysis framework constructed by strategists at Deutsche Bank shows that Trump often makes the most impactful decisions when the market stress is at its highest. The bank's "stress index" weighs the performance of the S&P 500 and US Treasury yields, inflation expectations, and Trump's approval rating. Data shows that the index reached significant peaks when Trump announced the postponement of "equivalent tariffs" last spring, clarified his unwillingness to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell last summer, and threatened not to use force to take over Greenland earlier this year. Currently, the index has risen to its highest level since Trump took office in January 2025. At the same time, evidence shows that Trump's weekend actions do have a significant impact on Monday's opening. For example, in the case of the EUR/USD currency pair and the S&P 500 index, the frequency of significant gaps between Monday's opening price and Friday's closing price is increasing, leaving investors with little time to quickly close out losing positions. Increased risks should not be underestimated Nevertheless, the implications of this temporary action remain unclear, and the market is still undecided. Wolfe Research analyst Tobin Marcus has dubbed Trump's latest move as "Schrodinger's TACO" and warned in a research report on Monday that the likelihood of Trump sending more Marines to the region and seizing the key Iranian oil export hub of Kharg Island is increasing, raising the risk of escalated tensions. Marcus wrote: When this force arrives, Trump will face a choice: surrender, escalate, or let it slide. We don't think this decision will be easy, but we believe investors must seriously consider the possibility of escalation. Trump continues to send ambiguous signals regarding the situation in the Middle East, while Wendy Sherman, former US Deputy Secretary of State, stated in the media: This may just be a delaying tactic until we deploy our troops, but if that is indeed the case, the US will face a prolonged siege, and the president cannot continue to manipulate the markets every Saturday and Monday morning. Josh Lipsky, Chairman of the International Economic Department at Atlantic China Welding Consumables, Inc., takes a more cautious stance. He said: I believe that the market, and all of us, should expect increased volatility on weekends in the future. However, Josh Lipsky also warned against overinterpreting the signals. This article is excerpted from "Wall Street News," authored by Bao Yilong; edited by GMTEight: He Yucheng.