Expectations for easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran are rising, with international oil prices plummeting by over 10% in a single day.

Due to signs of easing tensions in the Middle East, international oil prices plummeted on Monday. US President Trump stated that he will delay plans to strike Iran's power and energy infrastructure following "productive dialogue" with Iran, sparking optimistic expectations in the market for a de-escalation of the conflict. Data showed that Brent crude oil futures for May delivery fell by 10.9% on Monday, closing at $99.94 per barrel, marking the lowest level since March 11 and the largest single-day decline since March 10. US WTI crude oil May contracts also dropped by 10.3%, closing at $88.13 per barrel. Trump said on social media that the US and Iran have engaged in "very good and productive dialogue" towards a "comprehensive resolution of the conflict," and announced a postponement of military strikes on Iran's power and energy facilities for five days, depending on the progress of negotiations. The conflict between the two sides has been ongoing for over three weeks. However, there are still divergent views on the direction of the situation. Naeem Aslam, Chief Investment Officer at Zaye Capital Markets, pointed out that the US delaying the strike does not mean Israel will also back off simultaneously, and there are reports that Israel has increased its attacks on Iran instead. In the backdrop of conflicting reports, he stated that he will not easily short oil. It is worth noting that Trump had threatened to intensify strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure over the weekend, while the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament warned of retaliatory actions in the region. On Monday, Trump refuted the Iranian media's claim that there were no talks between the two sides, stating that negotiations occurred "last night" and hinting at a possible agreement within the next five days. Analysts believe that the current trend in oil prices heavily depends on political statements. President of Strategic Energy & Economic Research, Michael Lynch, said that the market is largely being driven by Trump's remarks, although the actual progress of negotiations is unclear, signaling a desire for an agreement. If negotiations do not truly progress, oil prices may quickly return above $100. In the medium to long term, even if tensions in the Middle East ease, there may be limited downward pressure on oil prices. Kathleen Brooks, Research Director at XTB, pointed out that the restoration of energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf region will take time, thus Brent oil prices may struggle to return to the $60 to $70 range in the short term. While oil prices plummeted, the US stock market rebounded strongly on Monday, with all three major indices rising by over 1%. However, over the past four weeks, the Dow has accumulated an 8.2% decline, the S&P 500 has fallen by 5.8%, and the Nasdaq has seen a 5.4% drop, indicating that the market has not fully recovered from previous correction pressures.