Oil price enters the era of three digits? Goldman Sachs warns: may be long-term maintained above 100 US dollars, or even surpass the peak in 2008.

Goldman Sachs said on Thursday that the risks for oil prices remain biased to the upside, both in the short term and through 2027. The bank added that the continued presence of large-scale supply shocks in the past highlights the possibility of oil prices staying above $100 per barrel. On Thursday, Iran attacked energy facilities across the Middle East in retaliation for Israeli strikes on its South Pars gas field, causing the benchmark Brent crude price to surge to over $119 per barrel, marking a sharp escalation in the three-week-long war. This war has led to widespread shutdowns and disruptions in Gulf countries. Goldman Sachs stated that its base forecast assumes oil supply will gradually recover from April onwards, and Brent crude prices will fall to around $70 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026. However, Goldman warned that uncertainties surrounding the Iran war and the reopening of the Hormuz Strait pose high risks for the long-term outlook. Goldman Sachs mentioned that if production capacities are damaged, supply constraints could persist for a longer period; however, if OPEC deploys remaining capacity after oil supply recovery, production could increase. Goldman Sachs stated that the impact related to the Hormuz Strait would be the largest in history, and analyzed the sustainability of production losses in the five largest supply interruptions over the past 50 years. The bank's base forecast assumes oil production will normalize within four weeks of complete reopening, but also notes significant downside risks for long-term supply, especially from Iran and offshore oil production. Goldman Sachs mentioned that in the short term, as long as oil transportation through the Hormuz Strait remains restricted, oil prices could continue to rise. They also pointed out that if the interruption risks persist, Brent crude prices could exceed the peak of 2008. Brent crude reached a historical high of $147.5 per barrel in 2008. Goldman Sachs also stated that if the risk of US export restrictions increases, the price difference between Brent crude and WTI crude may further widen.